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604 S Spears St
D Composite 40.2
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +11.9/30.0
  • ARV discount +8.7/15.0
  • 1% rule +4.0/10.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • DSCR +3.5/10.0
  • Schools +3.4/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$199,900

604 S Spears St · Alvarado, TX 76009
3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market
Built 1952 1.79 ac lot $163/sqft · at area comps Est $206k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

Key facts

  • Multiple structures
  • Easy highway access
  • Hard-to-find acreage

Tags

DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGEUNFINISHED UPSTAIRS SPACEMULTIPLE STRUCTURESHARD-TO-FIND ACREAGEEASY HIGHWAY ACCESS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
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What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-618/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Alvarado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 73/100 on livability (#228 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
  • Alvarado ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #416 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.90%
Cap rate
5.98%
Cash-on-cash
-1.10%
DSCR
0.95
GRM
9.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$205,543
List price
$199,900
Delta
-2.75%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
110 S 5th St 0.17mi 3/1.5 1,182 (-3%) 3mo $200,000 $169 82
311 S Watson St 0.43mi 3/1.0 1,218 (-0%) 1mo $131,750 $108 78
205 Bishop St 0.12mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,168 (-5%) 7mo $184,900 $158 72
306 E Cotter Ave 0.21mi 3/2.0 1,290 (+5%) 7mo $275,000 $213 71
1105 S Fannin St 0.45mi 3/2.0 1,250 (+2%) 8mo $279,900 $224 65
324 S Watson St 0.40mi 3/2.0 1,305 (+7%) 5mo $239,888 $184 62
1008 S Spears St 0.22mi 3/2.0 1,368 (+12%) 6mo $310,000 $227 61
9828 County Rd 0.36mi 2/1.0 (-1) 1,350 (+10%) 4mo $1,450,000 $1,074 58
201 Fm 3136 0.50mi 3/1.0 1,356 (+11%) 4mo $124,999 $92 56
1111 Travis Ave 0.43mi 3/2.0 1,396 (+14%) 3mo $325,000 $233 50
200 Bill Jackson Dr 0.55mi 3/2.0 1,097 (-10%) 7mo $219,900 $200 47
307 E Patton Ave 0.49mi 2/1.5 (-1) 1,063 (-13%) 6mo $199,000 $187 43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-18.1%
Equity multiple
0.36×
Total profit
$-35,590
Equity at exit
$29,806
10-year hold
IRR
-10.2%
Equity multiple
0.38×
Total profit
$-34,874
Equity at exit
$17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

ZIP-level market 76009

Home prices YoY
-25.7%
Active inventory
359
Price-to-rent
9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,802 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,048
Tax from tax record
$343 /mo · $4,118/yr
Insurance
$83
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$378
Net cashflow
$-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,867
Max offer price $190,797
Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $62 -5% $5 +0% $-52 +5% $-108 +10% $-165
Rent -10% $-194 -5% $-123 +0% $-52 +5% $20 +10% $91
Rate -1.0pp $49 -0.5pp $-1 base $-52 +0.5pp $-103 +1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$49,975
Closing costs
$5,997
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
106 Austin St Alvarado, TX 3.0 2.0 1178 $1,900 $1.61 25d 1 0.12mi
1109 S Spears St Alvarado, TX 3.0 2.0 1090 $1,700 $1.56 0d 1 0.26mi
108 Sunset Cir Alvarado, TX 3.0 2.0 1127 $1,725 $1.53 25d 1 0.38mi
108 Sunset Cir Alvarado, TX 3.0 2.0 1127 $1,725 $1.53 44d 1 0.38mi
811 N Spears St Unit 102 Alvarado, TX 2.0 1.5 1000 $1,195 $1.20 21d 1 0.99mi
811 N Spears St Alvarado, TX 2.0 2.0 1000 $1,195 $1.20 16d 1 0.99mi
811 N Spears St Unit 102 Alvarado, TX 2.0 1.5 1000 $1,195 $1.20 3d 1 0.99mi
1020 Burnett Blvd Unit B Alvarado, TX 3.0 2.0 1329 $1,750 $1.32 19d 1 1.27mi

Listing history 21 events

  1. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,900 Active 145 DOM
  2. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,900 Active 142 DOM
  3. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,900 Active 141 DOM
  4. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
  5. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
  6. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
  7. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 133 DOM
  8. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
  9. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 131 DOM
  10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 128 DOM
  11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 127 DOM
  12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 126 DOM
  13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 125 DOM
  14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 124 DOM
  15. 2026-04-21
    status Active 1901-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

    Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

  16. 2026-04-07
    status Pending 1901-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

    Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

  17. 2026-04-02
    price $199,900 1901-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

    Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

  18. 2026-02-07
    price $209,900 1901-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

    Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

  19. 2026-01-26
    price $215,000 1901-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

    Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

  20. 2026-01-13
    listed $220,000 Active 1901-char remark
    Show marketing remark (1901 chars)

    Set on nearly 1.8 acres, this Alvarado property offers space, flexibility, and strong rehab potential for the right buyer! The 3-bedroom, 1-bath main home features just over 1,200 square feet with a straightforward layout ready for renovation. As shown in the photos, the property needs work throughout, making it an ideal opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize from the ground up. The standout feature of the property is the detached two-car garage with unfinished upstairs space, presenting excellent potential for a future apartment, guest suite, office, or rental unit (buyer to verify). With multiple structures already in place, this property offers options that are increasingly hard to find. Fixer, fixer-upper, investor special, handyman special, value-add, rehab opportunity, renovation project, flip potential, sweat equity, project home, needs work, not turnkey, as-is, cash or renovation loan, opportunity property, full rehab, cosmetic updates, interior renovation, unfinished space, expansion potential, add square footage, convert garage, detached two-car garage, garage apartment potential, ADU potential (buyer to verify), accessory dwelling unit, guest suite potential, rental conversion, office conversion, multiple structures, outbuilding, secondary living space, income-producing potential, nearly 1.8 acres, large lot, cleared acreage, land value, room to expand, add improvements, hard-to-find acreage, open space, country feel, Alvarado TX, Alvarado ISD, near schools, near shopping, easy highway access, convenient location, growing area, investors, flippers, buy and hold, rental strategy, short-term rental potential (verify), long-term rental, owner-investor, contractor special, property with upside, bring your vision, customize from the ground up, land plus structures, rare opportunity with acreage, sold as-is, buyer to verify all uses

  21. 2005-01-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$4,118 · $343/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$4,118 · $343/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$21,619
− Mortgage interest
−$11,198
− Property taxes
−$4,118
− Insurance
−$1,000
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,729
− Management
−$1,729
− Depreciation
−$5,815
Taxable loss
−$3,971
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$953
After-tax cash flow
$335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Alvarado ISD
NCES district ID
4800011
Math proficiency
41% ▲ 4.00%
Reading proficiency
37% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$53,485
Composite
34.02/100
National rank
#5312
State rank
#416 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvarado

Score
73/100
State rank
#228
US rank
#5544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Alvarado, TX
County
Johnson County · 147,987 people
City population
22,803
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
22,803
Household income
$79,755
Rent vs Own
22.4% rent · 77.6% own
Severe rent burden
298.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
179,678 people
By 2030
189,208 · +5.3%
By 2040
207,261 · +15.4%
By 2050
223,064 · +24.1%
By 2075
259,979 · +44.7%
By 2100
275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority White (56%)
Race & ethnicity
White 56% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 17% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 37%
Common ancestry
Serbian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada
Languages at home
73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

2024 margin
Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
2008→2024 swing
-3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
All cycles
2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -86.74%
Current HPI
251.2624
Rent YoY
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY
▲ 3.95%
F500 in state
110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

-9.1% since first listed
7 events — show timeline
  • 2026-04-21 Relisted NTREIS
  • 2026-04-07 Pending NTREIS
  • 2026-04-02 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
  • 2026-02-07 Price Changed $209,900 NTREIS
  • 2026-01-26 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
  • 2026-01-13 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
  • 2005-01-27 Sold (Public Records) Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,118 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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