15118 Waterow Vw · San Antonio, TX 78073

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,091 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2024 5,227 sqft lot $211/sqft · 11% below area Est $254k · 10% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The cozy Acorn plan at Preserve at Medina features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a two-car garage. The chef-ready kitchen is the heart of the home, with a full suite of stainless appliances, granite countertops, recessed lighting, and USB outlets. The private master retreat will quickly become your sweet escape at the end of every busy day. The Acorn is the perfect home to start your new chapter in!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Preserve at Medina
• Financial info: HOA fee is paid annually
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke alarm
• Utilities: CPS Energy for electricity; SAWS water and sewer; Water system and sewer system available
• Home design: New construction by LGI Homes; Stone/rock and siding exterior
• Construction: Approximately 2 years old; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Park/playground and BBQ/grill in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (14 x 12); Bedroom 2 (10 x 11); Bedroom 3 (10 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with tub/shower combination and single vanity (5 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; Ground level / no steps; Open floor plan; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; Some window coverings remain; Smoke alarm; Disposal; Vent fan
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room (6 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,438 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.96%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,170
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -9.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15110 Waterow Vw	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	15mo	$255,900	$238	84
4011 Mistyrock Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	15mo	$245,900	$229	83
14822 Nest Jct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	19mo	$242,900	$226	78
4023 Mistyrock Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	20mo	$239,900	$223	77
15507 Snug Harbor Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	17mo	$252,900	$235	77
4031 Belby Flds	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	20mo	$239,900	$223	76
4246 Paprika Grv	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	2mo	$233,109	$202	64
4214 Paprika Grv	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	6mo	$228,499	$198	63
14935 Telfaire Mdw	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	8mo	$241,900	$225	63
15503 Mint Patch Mdw	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	4mo	$214,610	$186	61
15514 Mint Patch Mdw	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+6%)	6mo	$233,109	$202	61
14927 Telfaire Mdw	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	14mo	$258,900	$241	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,618
• Equity at exit: $98,248

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $44,104
• Equity at exit: $147,542

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,752 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,392/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $173,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-255	+0% $-320	+5% $-385	+10% $-450
Rent	-10% $-458	-5% $-389	+0% $-320	+5% $-250	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-204	-0.5pp $-261	base $-320	+0.5pp $-379	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15315 Waterow Vw Von Ormy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1781	$1,855	$1.04	0d	1	0.10mi
15226 Walcott Rdg Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1297	$1,700	$1.31	25d	1	0.15mi
3819 Leighton Hbr Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	1430	$1,700	$1.19	25d	1	0.17mi
15319 Escalante Pass Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,000	$1.40	0d	1	0.22mi
4042 Bay Leaf Loop Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,600	$1.23	45d	1	0.32mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	6d	1	0.36mi
15531 Clove Spice Way Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,595	$1.23	22d	1	0.36mi
4231 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	3.0	1470	$1,723	$1.17	0d	1	0.47mi
4218 Paprika Grv Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.48mi
4323 Caraway Bay Von Ormy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1572	$2,129	$1.35	0d	6	0.61mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $229,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    listed $229,900 New 407-char remark
11. 2026-03-09
    historical
12. 2026-03-04
    status Back on Market
13. 2026-02-21
    status Pending
14. 2026-02-07
    price $234,900
15. 2026-01-09
    listed $264,900 New
16. 2025-12-28
    historical
17. 2025-12-27
    price $264,900
18. 2025-12-26
    status Back on Market
19. 2025-12-16
    price $244,900
20. 2025-12-15
    status Pending
21. 2025-12-06
    price $264,900
22. 2025-11-01
    price $244,900
23. 2025-10-27
    status Back on Market
24. 2025-10-14
    price $241,900
25. 2025-10-13
    status Pending
26. 2025-10-10
    price $244,900
27. 2025-10-06
    status Back on Market
28. 2025-09-22
    status Pending
29. 2025-09-19
    listed $241,900 New
30. 2025-09-15
    historical
31. 2025-09-13
    price $241,900
32. 2025-09-12
    status Price Change
33. 2025-08-19
    status Pending
34. 2025-08-14
    status Back on Market
35. 2025-08-07
    price $251,900
36. 2025-08-06
    status Pending
37. 2025-08-05
    status Back on Market
38. 2025-07-23
    status Pending
39. 2025-07-07
    status Back on Market
40. 2025-07-01
    status Pending
41. 2025-07-01
    status Back on Market
42. 2025-06-19
    status Pending
43. 2025-05-29
    listed $258,900 Price Change
44. 2025-05-28
    historical
45. 2025-05-27
    status Back on Market
46. 2025-05-20
    status Pending
47. 2025-04-12
    price $258,900
48. 2025-04-09
    status Back on Market
49. 2025-03-06
    status Pending
50. 2025-02-22
    listed $255,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$4,392
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$7,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.5% since first listed

48 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-05-13 Listed $229,900 LERA
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-02-21 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $234,900 LERA
• 2026-01-09 Listed $264,900 LERA
• 2025-12-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $264,900 LERA
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $244,900 LERA
• 2025-12-15 Pending — LERA
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $264,900 LERA
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $244,900 LERA
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $241,900 LERA
• 2025-10-13 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $244,900 LERA
• 2025-10-06 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-09-22 Pending — LERA
• 2025-09-19 Listed $241,900 LERA
• 2025-09-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $241,900 LERA
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-08-19 Pending — LERA
• 2025-08-14 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $251,900 LERA
• 2025-08-06 Pending — LERA
• 2025-08-05 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-23 Pending — LERA
• 2025-07-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-01 Pending — LERA
• 2025-07-01 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-06-19 Pending — LERA
• 2025-05-29 Listed $258,900 LERA
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-05-20 Pending — LERA
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $258,900 LERA
• 2025-04-09 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-03-06 Pending — LERA
• 2025-02-22 Listed $255,900 LERA
• 2025-02-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $270,900 LERA
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $252,900 LERA
• 2024-11-16 Price Changed $258,900 LERA
• 2024-11-09 Price Changed $255,900 LERA
• 2024-11-01 Listed $265,900 LERA

Property tax history

+61.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,392 · +187.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.