626 Hudson St · Trenton, NJ 08611

$100,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1887 1,307 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * INVESTOR ALERT * * Unlock the potential of this historic property offering a rare opportunity for investors, renovators, and developers seeking their next value-add project. Located in the Chambersburg neighborhood in Trenton city on a beautiful corner lot, this home will not last long! Property will be sold in AS IS condition, Seller will make no repairs

Key facts

• Historic property
• Corner lot
• 1,307 sq ft lot

Tags

• HISTORIC PROPERTY
• CHAMBERSBURG NEIGHBORHOOD
• CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property condition ranges from below average to major rehab needed

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public septic; Natural gas service
• Home design: Detached property; Fee simple ownership; Estimated year built
• Construction: Frame construction; Block and brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot location; Not in a federal flood zone; Above grade and below grade other structures noted

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat; Window air conditioning units; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: 9'+ ceilings; Unfinished full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trenton Central High School - Main Campus (math 2% / reading 10%, grade F, #396 of 399 statewide, top 99%, 2,255 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 80% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,499/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $78k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.49%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,674
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Beatty St	0.37mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (-1%)	6mo	$240,000	$139	69
972 S Broad St	0.30mi	4/1.5	1,638 (-6%)	17mo	$220,000	$134	62
104 Barnt Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-4%)	6mo	$315,000	$189	54
211 Randall Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,738 (0%)	17mo	$300,000	$173	47
307 Commonwealth Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,480 (-15%)	8mo	$275,000	$186	33
1265 S Broad St	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,548 (-11%)	19mo	$250,000	$161	29
508 Tyler St	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,516 (-13%)	23mo	$240,000	$158	28
1016 Genesee St	0.75mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,490 (-14%)	13mo	$350,000	$235	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $60,358
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $164,459
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,322/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,067

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1103 Division St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	21d	1	0.41mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	14d	1	0.44mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	14d	1	0.49mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	0.58mi
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	21d	1	0.60mi
244 Jersey St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,300	$1.68	14d	1	0.62mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	0.70mi
233 Virginia Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1302	$2,500	$1.92	13d	1	0.71mi
234 Howell St Trenton, NJ	3.0	3.0	1656	$3,600	$2.17	21d	1	0.77mi
1049 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1270	$2,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.79mi
1132 Genesee St Unit 1132 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1198	$2,500	$2.09	21d	1	0.85mi
5 Rafting Way Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.5	1908	$2,550	$1.34	44d	1	0.85mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	0.88mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	21d	1	0.99mi
117 Park Ave Morrisville, PA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,200	$2.29	13d	1	1.22mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	21d	1	1.28mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	1.32mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.42mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 367-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 366-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,322 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,322
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,399
• − Management: −$2,399
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $12,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,086
• After-tax cash flow: $10,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+29.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,322 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.