351 N Meridian Rd #39 · Apache Junction, AZ 85120

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 51 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $38k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Seller to paint exterior - color chosen by buyer pending association approval, with an full-price offer. Charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath Villager mobile home in the desirable 55+ Meridian Park community in Apache Junction! This 14x60 (840 sq ft) home features a new $10K AC unit with warranty, three ceiling fans, and layered window coverings. The updated kitchen includes a new butcher block bar, six additional cabinets, a pantry, ample storage, plus a GE stack washer/dryer and Whirlpool dishwasher. The remodeled bathroom offers added cabinetry for convenience. Enjoy a large porch with beautiful sunset views. Also includes a 2-car carport, two storage sheds and enclosed pet a

Key facts

• New ac unit
• Remodeled bathroom
• Butcher block bar

Tags

• NEW AC UNIT
• BUTCHER BLOCK BAR
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• LARGE PORCH
• SUNSET VIEWS
• ENCLOSED PET AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease with monthly fee; Land lease amount $680 monthly; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool; Community spa (heated); Community fitness center; Community media room; Pickleball courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Metal siding with wood frame; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Possible 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 57.4% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 182.64%
• DSCR: 9.13
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $37,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
351 N Meridian Dr #74	0.05mi	2/1.5	840 (0%)	19mo	$30,000	$36	80
351 N Meridian Rd #112	0.05mi	2/2.0	910 (+8%)	19mo	$67,000	$74	64
2900 W Superstition Blvd #21	0.37mi	2/2.0	854 (+2%)	18mo	$35,000	$41	61
2420 W 5th Ave #32	0.57mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	3mo	$14,999	$19	60
1150 N Delaware Dr #24	0.57mi	2/2.0	896 (+7%)	2mo	$28,000	$31	57
1030 N Delaware Dr #17	0.54mi	2/1.0	780 (-7%)	8mo	$16,000	$21	56
2570 W Scenic St	0.28mi	2/1.0	724 (-14%)	12mo	$220,000	$304	54
2426 W Scenic St	0.38mi	2/2.0	890 (+6%)	20mo	$130,300	$146	52
686 N Ocotillo Dr #20	0.56mi	2/1.0	910 (+8%)	17mo	$41,000	$45	46
1030 N Delaware Dr #23	0.59mi	2/2.0	910 (+8%)	13mo	$60,000	$66	44
694 S Desert View Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	741 (-12%)	1mo	$290,000	$391	43
929 N Delaware Dr #25	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	730 (-13%)	8mo	$27,000	$37	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.46×
• Total profit: $59,237
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.33×
• Total profit: $121,304
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85120

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $1,065

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
455 N Delaware Dr Unit 7 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	24d	1	0.43mi
2185 W Ohio St Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	3d	1	0.53mi
561 S Meridian Rd Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	24d	1	0.56mi
561 S Meridian Rd Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	16d	1	0.56mi
455 S Delaware Dr Unit 179 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,395	$2.26	24d	1	0.66mi
455 S Delaware Dr Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,048	$1.93	20d	2	0.66mi
135 N Palo Verde Dr Unit 8 Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	23d	1	0.74mi
135 N Palo Verde Dr Apache Junction, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$915	$1.22	19d	1	0.74mi
960 S Mara Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	682	$1,450	$2.13	12d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $25,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $29,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $29,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $29,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥111°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,505
• − Management: −$1,505
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $13,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,161
• After-tax cash flow: $9,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apache Junction, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $57,786
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.31%
• Current HPI: 313.4666
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.50%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $30,000 ARMLS