106 Sheldon Hill Rd · Shokan, NY 12461

$224,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1958 1.12 ac lot $155/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Olivebridge! Situated on 1.12 acres, 106 Sheldon Hill Road offers a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with approximately 1,456 square feet of living space and a full unfinished basement, providing additional potential for storage or future expansion. Ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking for a renovation project in the Hudson Valley, this home presents a chance to restore, customize, or reimagine the space to fit your vision. The spacious lot offers privacy and room to enhance outdoor living, all while being within reach of local amenities, recreation, and everything the Hudson Valley has to offer.

Key facts

• Recreation
• Spacious lot
• Local amenities

Tags

• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• ROOM TO ENHANCE OUTDOOR LIVING
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 1.8% in Shokan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#888 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Onteora Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #288 of 755 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Onteora High School (math 92% / reading 90%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 413 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 91% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onteora Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $225k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $204,749 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.56%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $617,851
• List price: $224,999
• Delta: -63.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Sheldon Hill Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,388 (-5%)	4mo	$400,000	$288	64
62 Grassy Ridge Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,244 (-15%)	12mo	$350,000	$281	52
2372 Co Rd 3	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (+13%)	4mo	$1,350,000	$820	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $84,402
• Equity at exit: $85,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $218,776
• Equity at exit: $120,601

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12461

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,794/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $1,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $224,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,259	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,132	+5% $1,068	+10% $1,005
Rent	-10% $876	-5% $1,004	+0% $1,132	+5% $1,260	+10% $1,387
Rate	-1.0pp $1,245	-0.5pp $1,189	base $1,132	+0.5pp $1,074	+1.0pp $1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,999 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $224,999 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,999 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,999 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,999 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,999 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,999 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $224,999 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,999 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,999 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,999 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $224,999 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,999 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,999 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,999 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $224,999 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $224,999 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Olivebridge! Situated on 1.12 acres, 106 Sheldon Hill Road offers a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with approximately 1,456 square feet of living space and a full unfinished basement, providing additional potential for storage or future expansion. Ideal for investors, contractors, or buyers looking for a renovation project in the Hudson Valley, this home presents a chance to restore, customize, or reimagine the space to fit your vision. The spacious lot offers privacy and room to enhance outdoor living, all while being within reach of local amenities, recreation, and everything the Hudson Valley has to offer.

18. 1986-06-26
    soldstatus $91,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,794 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,798 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 56.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,794
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,105
• − Management: −$3,105
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $10,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,528
• After-tax cash flow: $11,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onteora Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621840
• Math proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,997
• Composite: 52.17/100
• National rank: #3482
• State rank: #288 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shokan

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #888
• US rank: #17222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,359
• Population (ZIP): 1,426

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 8% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.73%
• Current HPI: 346.6673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+147.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $224,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,794 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.