8112 Baby Farm Rd · Midway, FL 32310

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1986 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* Motivated Seller * Highly Desired Silver Lake Area - 3 Bedroom 2 Bath with Covered Storage Building. House needs to be finished, and is a good opportunity for Sweat Equity or a Streamline 203k Renovation Loan - Do Not Walk On Front Steps/Stoop. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.54 acres (dimensions: 132x180x131x179)
• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking space(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private maintained road (unimproved)
• Home design: Single-story home; Fiber cement (HardiPlank type) exterior
• Construction: Fiber cement (HardiPlank type) siding; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (12x12); Bedroom 3 (12x10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Utility room; Living room; Family room; Dining room; Crawlspace foundation
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (laundry/utility space)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fort Braden School (math 37% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 636 students, 72% FRL); Amos P. Godby High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,444 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 45% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $188 of equity ($864 loan paydown + $-676 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $125k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.45%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $18,141
• Equity at exit: $32,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $60,740
• Equity at exit: $37,027

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32310

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $697/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $969

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $428	+0% $392	+5% $357	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $276	-5% $334	+0% $392	+5% $450	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $424	base $392	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,500 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $147,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $147,500 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,500 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,500 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $147,500
18. 2026-03-07
    price $149,000
19. 2026-02-13
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2026-02-13
    historical
21. 2026-02-06
    listed $150,000
22. 2025-04-02
    soldstatus $50,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$697
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,814
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$675
• After-tax cash flow: $4,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,888
• Household income: $38,288
• Rent vs Own: 47.2% rent · 52.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1272.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Current HPI: 270.5721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+190.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $147,500 CATRS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $149,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $150,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $150,000 CATRS
• 2025-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $50,800 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $697 · -12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.