1833 N Watkins Pt · Hernando, FL 34453

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1997 1.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home in a private quiet setting is the place you want to make your home! This home has just had new flooring and paint throughout. You're going to think its a brand new home when you see it. Seller requires purchaser to obtain a Caliber Home Loans Pre-Qualification Letter prior to accepting an offer for any non-cash transaction. Purchaser may use any lender to obtain financing for the purchase.

Key facts

• 1.47 acre lot
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,252/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $205k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.17%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $735
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $44,163
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34453

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,576

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $650	-5% $592	+0% $534	+5% $476	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $356	-5% $445	+0% $534	+5% $623	+10% $712
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $586	base $534	+0.5pp $481	+1.0pp $427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1471 E Saint James Loop Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,700	$1.38	21d	1	0.77mi
2620 E Newhaven St Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	21d	1	0.92mi
2858 E Marcia St Inverness, FL	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,500	$1.40	21d	1	1.00mi
2961 E Brigadoon Ct Hernando, FL	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,300	$1.42	21d	1	1.20mi
2675 N Canterbury Lake Dr Hernando, FL	3.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2018-03-20
   soldstatus $89,000
2. 2018-03-12
   soldstatus $89,000 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   This beautiful home in a private quiet setting is the place you want to make your home! This home has just had new flooring and paint throughout. You're going to think its a brand new home when you see it. Seller requires purchaser to obtain a Caliber Home Loans Pre-Qualification Letter prior to accepting an offer for any non-cash transaction. Purchaser may use any lender to obtain financing for the purchase.

3. 2017-12-16
   listed $89,900 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   This beautiful home in a private quiet setting is the place you want to make your home! This home has just had new flooring and paint throughout. You're going to think its a brand new home when you see it. Seller requires purchaser to obtain a Caliber Home Loans Pre-Qualification Letter prior to accepting an offer for any non-cash transaction. Purchaser may use any lender to obtain financing for the purchase.

4. 2005-09-16
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $3,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$772
• After-tax cash flow: $5,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,621
• Household income: $57,568
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 240.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.32%
• Current HPI: 291.8965
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+36.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2018-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-12 Sold (MLS) $89,000 RACC
• 2017-12-16 Listed $89,900 RACC
• 2005-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,016 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.