1109 Alpha Rd · Turlock, CA 95380

$1,350,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 5,580 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1969 9,147 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Situated in the heart of Turlock, California, 1109 Alpha Road offers an exceptional opportunity for either first time or experienced investors. The property consists of a total of eight (8) units, including seven (7) two-bedroom apartments (ranging from approx. 650 & 864 sq. ft. each) and one (1) three-bedroom apartment (approx. 1,128 sq. ft. each). Each unit has been recently renovated to meet modern living standards, with energy-efficient dual-pane windows, central heat and air systems and updated interiors. Ownership has made considerable investments to ensure the property is in excellent condition, including a new roof, new exterior stucco and paint, and modernized HVAC systems. T

Key facts

• New exterior stucco
• Updated interiors
• Recently renovated

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR SYSTEMS
• UPDATED INTERIORS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW EXTERIOR STUCCO
• MODERNIZED HVAC SYSTEMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.17M (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.17M (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,678/mo this rent would consume 188% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1545% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,167,800 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-185,381
• Equity at exit: $201,289

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-173,043
• Equity at exit: $116,723

Cash invested: $378,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 80.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,080
• Tax from tax record: −$739 /mo · $8,872/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,452
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,609

Max offer price $1,350,000

Occupancy floor 88%

8-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 7× units	2	1.5	$9,793
1× unit	3	1.5	$1,885
Total (8 units)			$11,678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,500
• Closing costs: $40,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2022-08-24
   soldstatus $2,000,000
2. 2001-05-30
   soldstatus $205,000
3. 1979-04-01
   soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,872 · $739/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,260 · $855/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,388/yr (+$116/mo · 15.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $140,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,621
• − Property taxes: −$8,872
• − Insurance: −$6,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,211
• − Management: −$11,211
• − Depreciation: −$39,273
• Taxable loss: −$12,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,072
• After-tax cash flow: $13,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2225.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2022-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 1979-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,872 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.