48987 S Silver Salmon Dr · Susitna North, AK 99688

$85,000

2 bd · None ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2004 Fair condition 1.81 ac lot $148/sqft · 21% below area Est $108k · 21% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey Caswell Lakes cabin getaway on 3 lots totaling 1.8 acres. This 24x24 dry cabin is fully furnished and ready to enjoy immediately -- everything stays including furniture, bedding, kitchen items, grills, picnic table, tools, construction supplies, and two generators. Designed for comfortable seasonal use, the property features a well with pump (no hauling water), 35-gallon water tank, and on-demand hot water heater, making it easy to connect a portable shower for summer through hunting season. System is simple to winterize. Enjoy year-round recreation with nearby lakes, trails, fishing, hiking, snowmachining, skiing, and hunting right out your door. Extra acreage offers privacy and room to expand or store recreational toys. Located a short drive from local favorite Sheep Creek Lodge for dining, live music, and classic Alaska charm. A true move-in-ready basecamp -- just bring groceries and start making memories.

Key facts

• 1.81 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 66 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 1.7% in Susitna North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#128 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $349 of equity ($588 loan paydown + $-239 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.97%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,889
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -21.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $25,428
• Equity at exit: $23,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $69,485
• Equity at exit: $27,311

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $514	-5% $485	+0% $455	+5% $426	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $351	-5% $403	+0% $455	+5% $508	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $498	-0.5pp $477	base $455	+0.5pp $433	+1.0pp $411

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Turnkey Caswell Lakes cabin getaway on 3 lots totaling 1.8 acres. This 24x24 dry cabin is fully furnished and ready to enjoy immediately -- everything stays including furniture, bedding, kitchen items, grills, picnic table, tools, construction supplies, and two generators. Designed for comfortable seasonal use, the property features a well with pump (no hauling water), 35-gallon water tank, and on-demand hot water heater, making it easy to connect a portable shower for summer through hunting season. System is simple to winterize. Enjoy year-round recreation with nearby lakes, trails, fishing, hiking, snowmachining, skiing, and hunting right out your door. Extra acreage offers privacy and room to expand or store recreational toys. Located a short drive from local favorite Sheep Creek Lodge for dining, live music, and classic Alaska charm. A true move-in-ready basecamp -- just bring groceries and start making memories.

2. 2026-04-03
   price $85,000 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Turnkey Caswell Lakes cabin getaway on 3 lots totaling 1.8 acres. This 24x24 dry cabin is fully furnished and ready to enjoy immediately -- everything stays including furniture, bedding, kitchen items, grills, picnic table, tools, construction supplies, and two generators. Designed for comfortable seasonal use, the property features a well with pump (no hauling water), 35-gallon water tank, and on-demand hot water heater, making it easy to connect a portable shower for summer through hunting season. System is simple to winterize. Enjoy year-round recreation with nearby lakes, trails, fishing, hiking, snowmachining, skiing, and hunting right out your door. Extra acreage offers privacy and room to expand or store recreational toys. Located a short drive from local favorite Sheep Creek Lodge for dining, live music, and classic Alaska charm. A true move-in-ready basecamp -- just bring groceries and start making memories.

3. 2026-03-06
   listed $95,000 Active 931-char remark

   Show marketing remark (931 chars)

   Turnkey Caswell Lakes cabin getaway on 3 lots totaling 1.8 acres. This 24x24 dry cabin is fully furnished and ready to enjoy immediately -- everything stays including furniture, bedding, kitchen items, grills, picnic table, tools, construction supplies, and two generators. Designed for comfortable seasonal use, the property features a well with pump (no hauling water), 35-gallon water tank, and on-demand hot water heater, making it easy to connect a portable shower for summer through hunting season. System is simple to winterize. Enjoy year-round recreation with nearby lakes, trails, fishing, hiking, snowmachining, skiing, and hunting right out your door. Extra acreage offers privacy and room to expand or store recreational toys. Located a short drive from local favorite Sheep Creek Lodge for dining, live music, and classic Alaska charm. A true move-in-ready basecamp -- just bring groceries and start making memories.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $4,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This cabin requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value. Focus on painting, updating the kitchen, and completing the bathroom renovation.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Significant chipping and unevenness in paint need addressing.
• Major Bathroom Fixtures — No fixtures present, requiring full bathroom renovation.
• Moderate Kitchen Cabinets — Worn appearance and dated design need updating or replacement.
• Moderate Flooring — Worn appearance and dated design need updating or replacement.
• Minor Exterior Siding — Some discoloration and wear, could be repainted or replaced if budget allows.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Improves both resale and rental value by modernizing the interior.
• Both Bathroom renovation — Completes the living space and enhances both resale and rental appeal.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can be done in phases to improve both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Significant chipping and unevenness in paint need addressing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom Fixtures · No fixtures present, requiring full bathroom renovation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen Cabinets · Worn appearance and dated design need updating or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Flooring · Worn appearance and dated design need updating or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior Siding · Some discoloration and wear, could be repainted or replaced if budget allows.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$36,500–133,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating kitchen cabinets — Improves both resale and rental value by modernizing the interior. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Completes the living space and enhances both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can be done in phases to improve both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Susitna North

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #22801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susitna North, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $85,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $95,000 AKMLS