122 Pine Branch Ct · Lufkin, TX 75904

$165,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily · 465 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $137/sqft · 10% below area Est $183k · 10% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Model 1209 B1 - Washington

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 465 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $166k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($410/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trout Pri (252 students, 95% FRL); Lufkin Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,487 students, 89% FRL); Lufkin H S (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,135 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 68% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 359 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 465 days — a 12% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $146,071 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 465 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,490
• List price: $165,990
• Delta: -9.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Pine Branch Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+25%)	5mo	$186,990	$124	65
114 Pine Branch Ct	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+25%)	5mo	$179,990	$119	64
108 Pine Br	1.15mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+13%)	15mo	$262,500	$192	30
106 Pine Br	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+13%)	15mo	$262,500	$191	30
104 Pine Br	1.20mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+13%)	18mo	$262,500	$191	28
5412 Champions Dr #5412	0.96mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (+11%)	26mo	$169,000	$126	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,701
• Equity at exit: $24,750

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,619
• Equity at exit: $14,352

Cash invested: $46,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75904

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 359
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$207 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $165,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $91	+0% $34	+5% $-23	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-84	-5% $-25	+0% $34	+5% $93	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $76	base $34	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,498
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Champions Dr Lufkin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	816	$1,279	$1.57	16d	18	0.87mi
3000 S 1st St Lufkin, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$1,232	$1.33	93d	7	1.29mi
2013 Champions Dr Lufkin, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,500	$1.17	72d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,990 Active 465 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,990 Active 464 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,990 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,990 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,990 Active 458 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,990 Active 457 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $165,990 Active 456 DOM
8. 2026-05-14
   price $165,990 26-char remark

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   Model 1209 B1 - Washington

9. 2026-05-12
   historical
10. 2026-04-22
    price $170,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

11. 2026-04-21
    price $170,990
12. 2026-04-21
    price $170,990
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $175,990 Active
14. 2026-04-14
    historical
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $175,990 Active
16. 2026-03-11
    price $175,990

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

17. 2026-03-11
    price $175,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

18. 2026-03-04
    price $178,990

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

19. 2026-03-04
    price $178,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

20. 2026-02-27
    price $184,990

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

21. 2026-02-27
    price $184,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

22. 2026-02-12
    price $178,990
23. 2026-02-11
    price $178,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

24. 2026-01-26
    price $174,990
25. 2026-01-24
    price $174,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

26. 2026-01-15
    price $176,990

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

27. 2026-01-15
    price $176,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

28. 2026-01-06
    price $177,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

29. 2026-01-05
    price $177,990
30. 2025-12-17
    price $178,990 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

31. 2025-12-17
    price $178,990

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

32. 2025-12-09
    price $173,346 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

33. 2025-12-09
    price $173,346

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34. 2025-12-03
    price $174,097 26-char remark

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35. 2025-12-02
    price $174,097
36. 2025-11-25
    price $182,196

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

37. 2025-11-25
    price $182,196 26-char remark

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

38. 2025-11-11
    price $182,597
39. 2025-11-04
    price $182,597 26-char remark

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40. 2025-10-29
    price $183,598 26-char remark

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41. 2025-10-25
    price $183,598
42. 2025-10-17
    price $185,099

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    Model 1209 B1 - Washington

43. 2025-10-17
    price $185,099 26-char remark

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44. 2025-10-17
    price $202,990 26-char remark

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45. 2025-10-16
    price $185,099 26-char remark

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46. 2025-09-18
    price $193,994
47. 2025-09-10
    price $194,995
48. 2025-09-06
    price $199,496
49. 2025-09-04
    price $199,997
50. 2025-09-02
    price $199,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,298
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable loss: −$2,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$570
• After-tax cash flow: $979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,045–$18,135 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures can attract more buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Brookhollow El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 High Lufkin H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 90,174 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,462
• Household income: $60,205
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 18% of renters

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Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

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Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.71%
• Current HPI: 213.4236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.8% since first listed

61 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $165,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $170,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $170,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $170,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $175,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $175,990 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $175,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $175,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $178,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $178,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $184,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $184,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $178,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $178,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $174,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $174,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $176,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $176,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $177,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $177,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $178,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $178,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $173,346 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $173,346 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $174,097 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $174,097 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $182,196 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $182,196 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $182,597 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $182,597 Zillow
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $183,598 Zillow
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $183,598 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $185,099 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $185,099 Zillow
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $202,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $185,099 Zillow
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $193,994 HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $194,995 HARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $199,496 HARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $199,997 HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $187,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $202,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $207,990 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $192,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $210,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $189,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $207,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $194,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $199,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $217,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $217,990 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $247,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-17 Listed $232,990 HARMLS