3127 Andrew St · Middletown, OH 45044

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1956 $127/sqft · 15% below area Est $130k · 15% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom ranch with partial basement, all appliances to stay, very nice lot with lots of potential

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1956
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.55%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,779
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -15.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3210 Finley St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	860 (-0%)	2mo	$139,900	$163	88
3220 Finley St	0.14mi	2/1.0	840 (-3%)	5mo	$154,000	$183	85
1505 Pershing Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	2mo	$155,000	$179	81
1617 Pershing Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	868 (+0%)	10mo	$70,000	$81	74
3107 Judy Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	1mo	$115,500	$134	73
3003 Roslyn Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	14mo	$179,600	$208	68
3013 Yankee Rd	0.28mi	2/2.0	816 (-6%)	14mo	$189,900	$233	62
3009 Seneca St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (0%)	8mo	$129,900	$150	60
1309 Oxford State Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (-8%)	4mo	$170,000	$215	59
1702 Glenwood Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	965 (+12%)	8mo	$174,900	$181	56
1717 Pershing Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	972 (+12%)	8mo	$127,000	$131	54
3014 Ben Harrison St	0.59mi	2/1.0	762 (-12%)	12mo	$134,000	$176	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $28,148
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $101,886
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $907

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1419 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$2,495	$2.77	1d	1	0.22mi
1109 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	744	$995	$1.34	1d	1	0.55mi
2206 Baltimore St Middletown, OH	1.0	1.0	596	$900	$1.51	43d	1	0.82mi
2000 Pearl St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$3,500	$3.89	1d	4	0.96mi
1904 Baltimore St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	624	$975	$1.56	43d	1	1.01mi
2101 S Main St Middletown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$900	$1.19	1d	1	1.32mi
1409 Young St Unit 1 Middletown, OH	1.0	1.0	1050	$950	$0.90	4d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $109,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    price $119,900 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    2 bedroom ranch with partial basement, all appliances to stay, very nice lot with lots of potential

14. 2026-05-19
    price $119,900 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    2 bedroom ranch with partial basement, all appliances to stay, very nice lot with lots of potential

15. 2026-04-07
    listed $129,900 Active 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    2 bedroom ranch with partial basement, all appliances to stay, very nice lot with lots of potential

16. 2026-04-03
    listed $129,900 Active 99-char remark

    Show marketing remark (99 chars)

    2 bedroom ranch with partial basement, all appliances to stay, very nice lot with lots of potential

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $6,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $6,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $119,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $119,900 Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $129,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $129,900 Cincy MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,132 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.