534 12th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$199,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,358 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 4,158 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Turn-key investment opportunity in Niagara Falls — a fully occupied two-unit property with tenants in place and meaningful upgrades already done, ready to perform from day one. Both units feature 3 bedrooms, refinished hardwood floors that shine throughout the living and dining areas, new kitchen cabinets, granite countertops, and updated bathroom fixtures. Each unit has its own newer furnace and hot water tank — the kind of mechanical updates that keep maintenance calls to a minimum. The original decorative woodwork and columns give each apartment a character and warmth that's hard to find in modern rentals, making these units easy to lease. The exterior is a standout — a

Key facts

• Newer furnace
• Newer hot water tank
• New kitchen cabinets

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOM FIXTURES
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER HOT WATER TANK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner pays water; water included in rent; Operating expenses include water/sewer

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2 stories
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater (appliance)
• Bedrooms: 2-unit property (total units: 2)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Hardwood and varied flooring throughout; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Separate gas meters for each unit; Separate electric meters for each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,540/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $200k implies a 365% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.14%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
465 10th St	0.14mi	6/2.0	2,699 (+14%)	7mo	$121,000	$45	63
1145 Willow Ave	0.71mi	6/2.0	2,304 (-2%)	3mo	$53,300	$23	61
445 Elmwood Ave	0.63mi	6/2.0	2,314 (-2%)	9mo	$80,000	$35	60
444 20th St	0.54mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,385 (+1%)	6mo	$25,000	$10	59
1023 15th St	0.52mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,304 (-2%)	5mo	$190,000	$82	55
417 18th St	0.46mi	6/2.0	2,080 (-12%)	10mo	$166,000	$80	50
632 Elmwood Ave	0.58mi	6/2.0	2,677 (+14%)	4mo	$95,000	$35	47
1113 Whitney Ave	0.59mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,504 (+6%)	8mo	$48,000	$19	46
123 6th St	0.71mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (-7%)	8mo	$230,000	$105	44
559 22nd St	0.65mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,520 (+7%)	10mo	$38,000	$15	41
2219 Walnut Ave	0.66mi	6/3.0	2,023 (-14%)	4mo	$62,500	$31	38
626 23rd St	0.69mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,600 (+10%)	6mo	$125,000	$48	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $164,325
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.65×
• Total profit: $484,158
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,584/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $773	-5% $716	+0% $660	+5% $603	+10% $546
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $559	+0% $660	+5% $760	+10% $860
Rate	-1.0pp $760	-0.5pp $710	base $660	+0.5pp $608	+1.0pp $555

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,540
Total (2 units)			$2,540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 681-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,584 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,584
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,438
• − Management: −$2,438
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $5,007
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $6,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+364.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 1997-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,584 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.