3970 Windward Passage Cir #202 · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Condo public records · 361 Days on market

Built 1993 $842/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your flip-flops and your creative vision to this charming 2-bedroom + den unit in the highly sought-after community of Vanderbilt Lakes! With nearly 1,400 square feet to personalize, this well-maintained home offers a spacious layout and incredible potential for modern updates. Start your mornings with a coastal breeze on the oversized screened lanai overlooking the sparkling pool and lush, courtyard-style landscaping. Feel free to grab a lemon or lime from the community trees to elevate your evening cocktail! When the Florida sun gets warm, just slide the glass doors shut and enjoy the view from the cool comfort of your dining area. Located just 1.5 miles to Bonita Beach and minutes

Key facts

• Scenic trails
• Community trees
• $842 HOA

Tags

• OVERSIZED SCREENED LANAI
• COMMUNITY TREES
• SCENIC TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with conditions; maximum of 2
• Financial info: Association fee: $253 (semi-annually); additional fee listing shows $2,400 quarterly
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with management; Association amenities include cabana, pickleball, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, trails and management; Association fee covers management, cable TV, insurance, internet, irrigation water, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, pest control, recreation facilities, reserve fund, road maintenance, sewer, street lights, security, trash and water; Community has 96 units; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered parking; Deeded parking; Guest parking available; Paved parking; Detached carport with 1 carport space; One covered space
• Security: Gated community with security gate; Street lights; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: 2-story building; Entry level: 2; Faces south; Resale property
• Construction: Tile roof; Block, concrete and stucco construction; Rectangular lot; Paved road access; North exposure
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Includes den; Includes Florida room; Includes screened porch
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Bathtub; Dual sinks; Family/dining room; French doors/atrium doors; Living/dining room; Pantry; Separate shower; Cable TV available; Vaulted ceilings; High-speed internet available; Split-bedroom floorplan; Partially furnished; Single hung windows; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $340k).
• Recommended offer: $299k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 361 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $340k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 361 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-35,929
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-6,964
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$842
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$906
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,929

Max offer price $340,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $399	+0% $303	+5% $207	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $-38	-5% $132	+0% $303	+5% $473	+10% $643
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $389	base $303	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	16d	1	0.04mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	24d	1	0.04mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	24d	1	0.07mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	24d	1	0.10mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	24d	1	0.15mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	15d	1	0.19mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	24d	1	0.32mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	24d	1	0.32mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	24d	1	0.32mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	24d	1	0.40mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	24d	2	0.40mi
28178 Sunset Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,550	$2.72	22d	1	0.42mi
28327 Hidden Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$8,950	$5.71	24d	1	0.45mi
11 2nd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$9,500	$5.96	24d	1	0.49mi
75 3rd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1630	$8,900	$5.46	24d	1	0.52mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	16d	1	0.53mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	22d	1	0.55mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	24d	1	0.55mi
27921 Bonita Village Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1429	$3,745	$2.62	24d	3	0.65mi
28700 Trails Edge Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,175	$1.49	4d	2	0.73mi
3503 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	24d	1	0.76mi
3463 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	24d	1	0.78mi
4212 Rita Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,475	$1.03	24d	1	0.82mi
4412 Vanda Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,800	$1.56	24d	1	0.83mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	14d	1	0.85mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	24d	1	0.85mi
28790 Versol Dr Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$3,391	$3.15	2d	19	0.89mi
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.93mi
27594 Shore Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$5,500	$3.86	24d	1	0.94mi
4426 Little Hickory Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	979	$1,900	$1.94	20d	1	0.94mi
1345 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	24d	1	0.94mi
1340 Sweetwater Cv #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	24d	1	0.95mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	24d	1	0.95mi
1360 Sweetwater Cv #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,500	$4.30	24d	1	0.97mi
27625 Riverdale Ln Unit 27627 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	24d	1	0.98mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	24d	3	0.98mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	22d	1	0.98mi
1415 Sweetwater Cv #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,500	$4.71	24d	1	0.98mi
4851 Gary Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1281	$2,250	$1.76	24d	1	0.99mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	14d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $842 · $10,104/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-10-25
   price $340,000
2. 2025-05-30
   listed $375,000 Active
3. 2025-05-17
   historical
4. 2025-02-15
   price $399,000
5. 2024-12-27
   listed $420,000 Active
6. 1996-09-24
   soldstatus $105,000
7. 1994-02-01
   soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,048 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,048 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,140
• − Management: −$4,140
• − HOA: −$10,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$1,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$317
• After-tax cash flow: $3,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+195.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $340,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $375,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-05-17 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $399,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-27 Listed $420,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1996-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,048 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.