2901 23rd St · Orange, TX 77630

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1970 9,016 sqft lot $93/sqft · 12% above area Est $130k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home is full of opportunity! 2901 23rd Street offers a spacious layout, a large yard, and solid bones — the perfect foundation for your next renovation or investment project. With a little TLC, this property can easily be transformed into a cozy family home or income-producing rental. Located in an established neighborhood just minutes from schools, shopping, and major highways, it combines convenience with value. Whether you’re a first-time buyer with a vision or an investor looking for a great opportunity, 2901 23rd St is ready to shine again!

Key facts

• Large yard
• Minutes from schools
• 9,016 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($62/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,945
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 11.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2324 Manley Cir	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,360 (-13%)	5mo	$129,900	$96	69
4421 Memorial Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+1%)	3mo	$189,900	$120	66
2001 Rio Grande Pl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	20mo	$59,999	$39	64
2413 Mckee Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,547 (-1%)	3mo	$129,990	$84	62
2210 Link Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-1%)	5mo	$135,000	$87	60
2514 Thunderbird Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,799 (+15%)	7mo	$214,500	$119	59
3811 Beverly Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+7%)	11mo	$179,900	$108	49
2313 Mckee Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+7%)	9mo	$159,900	$95	48
4303 Memorial Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+15%)	8mo	$195,000	$109	45
2049 Wildwood Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-9%)	18mo	$175,000	$123	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,264
• Equity at exit: $49,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $52,062
• Equity at exit: $65,939

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,801/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $46	+0% $5	+5% $-36	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-52	+0% $5	+5% $62	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $42	base $5	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.22mi
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	45d	1	0.54mi
1907 Walnut Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,475	$1.08	15d	1	0.56mi
3 Pacific Cir Orange, TX	4.0	1.0	1361	$1,500	$1.10	22d	1	0.60mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	14d	27	0.61mi
3901 Beverly Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,500	$1.10	15d	1	0.65mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	22d	1	0.70mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	15d	1	0.77mi
4417 Willowglen St Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,650	$1.00	15d	1	0.79mi
1205 Wrenway Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,775	$1.14	15d	1	0.90mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	14d	1	0.91mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	14d	7	1.10mi
1117 18th St Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,500	$0.87	45d	1	1.13mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.32mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	15d	1	1.32mi
1120 28th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,500	$1.15	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $145,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-01-05
   listed $145,000 Active 578-char remark

   Show marketing remark (578 chars)

   This charming home is full of opportunity! 2901 23rd Street offers a spacious layout, a large yard, and solid bones — the perfect foundation for your next renovation or investment project. With a little TLC, this property can easily be transformed into a cozy family home or income-producing rental. Located in an established neighborhood just minutes from schools, shopping, and major highways, it combines convenience with value. Whether you’re a first-time buyer with a vision or an investor looking for a great opportunity, 2901 23rd St is ready to shine again!

4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-10-06
   listed $150,000 Active
6. 2015-07-21
   soldstatus
7. 2015-07-17
   soldstatus
8. 2015-06-05
   listed $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,801 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,801 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,801
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,389
• − Management: −$1,389
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$549
• After-tax cash flow: $610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+108.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2015-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-17 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2015-06-05 Listed $69,500 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,801 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.