26 Tuthills Ln · Jamesport, NY 11947

$1,650,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,643 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1.20 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready, Brand New Construction. You could be swimming in the pool, sipping North Fork wines, and hosting friends and family this summer! With the certificate of occupancy in hand, this home is the ultimate turnkey masterpiece, complete with designer furnishings. Featuring a newly installed $150,000 landscaping package and set back 1,000 feet from the road, the 1.2-acre estate lot seamlessly blends natural beauty, privacy, and modern ultra-luxury living. The open-concept first floor is perfect for entertaining, anchored by a bespoke chef’s kitchen featuring a Cambridge quartz island with a 2.5-inch mitered edge, full-height backsplash, and double-stacked premium cabinetry. The s

Key facts

• New construction
• Landscaping package
• Spa bath

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LANDSCAPING PACKAGE
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• SPA BATH
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL
• CUSTOM MASONRY PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; Tri-level; Living area measured from plans
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding
• Exterior features: In-ground saltwater pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Chef's kitchen with island; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Tri-level layout (total 9 rooms; bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Primary bathroom with soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Smart thermostat
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Chef's kitchen; Entertainment cabinets; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (full basement)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.65M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($138k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $1.65M).
• Recommended offer: $1.63M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,185 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $462k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.63M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,625,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.89%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $932,105
• Equity at exit: $741,911

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $2,291,931
• Equity at exit: $1,143,374

Cash invested: $462,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11947

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $29,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,062 /mo · $24,750/yr
• Insurance: −$688
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,090
• Net cashflow: $11,507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,434

Max offer price $1,650,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412,500
• Closing costs: $49,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
599 Peconic Bay Blvd Jamesport, NY	3.0	4.0	3000	$29,000	$9.67	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,650,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $1,650,000 Active
15. 2026-04-14
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-13
    historical
17. 2025-12-05
    listed $1,750,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $348,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$92,426
• − Property taxes: −$24,750
• − Insurance: −$8,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$27,840
• − Management: −$27,840
• − Depreciation: −$48,000
• Taxable income: $118,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28,535
• After-tax cash flow: $109,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, brand new construction home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a high ROI with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping package — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing and increase its value.
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental income.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping package — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental income. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jamesport

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1185
• US rank: #26497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamesport, NY
• City population: 716
• Population (ZIP): 248

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $1,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $1,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid