3942 Warbler Dr · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2005 6,055 sqft lot $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect family home with easy access to the Polk Parkway. Clean and ready for new owners with immediate occupancy. All appliances included. Double garage and a private back patio. No rear neighbors & overlooks a large ranch.

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Walk in closet
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WELL DESIGNED KITCHEN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot approximately 0.14 acres; Living area about 1,555 (public records); Building area listed as 2,000; No waterfront or water access; No CDD
• HOA & community: Queens Cove HOA (association required); Annual HOA fee $145 (equivalent to $12.08/month); Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential (public records)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-489/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Lake Elementary School (math 49% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 697 students, 59% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,198 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,372
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,474
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,492/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $237,798

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $29	+0% $-41	+5% $-110	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-119	+0% $-41	+5% $38	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $22	base $-41	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3958 Warbler Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,095	$0.93	24d	1	0.09mi
3992 Warbler Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,750	$1.07	15d	1	0.16mi
3808 McKinley Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2101	$2,116	$1.01	4d	1	0.18mi
616 Sunway Ln Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,195	$1.18	4d	1	0.33mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	4d	1	0.39mi
119 Southern Breeze Loop Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,160	$1.11	24d	1	0.76mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	24d	1	0.89mi
3211 Timberline Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,845	$1.09	4d	1	1.23mi
449 Kensington View Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,889	$1.23	4d	1	1.25mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	4d	1	1.26mi
304 Kensington View Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,889	$1.13	4d	1	1.27mi
233 Kensington View Blvd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,975	$1.32	24d	1	1.28mi
509 Kensington View Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,809	$1.13	4d	1	1.30mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	4d	1	1.30mi
257 Spirit Landings Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	24d	1	1.37mi
5320 Laurel Oak Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,650	$1.09	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $245,000 Active
16. 2025-10-17
    historical
17. 2025-05-06
    status Active
18. 2025-05-03
    status Pending
19. 2025-04-17
    listed $260,000 Active
20. 2020-10-29
    soldstatus $190,000
21. 2020-10-28
    soldstatus $190,000 Sold 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Perfect family home with easy access to the Polk Parkway. Clean and ready for new owners with immediate occupancy. All appliances included. Double garage and a private back patio. No rear neighbors & overlooks a large ranch.

22. 2020-09-07
    status Pending 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Perfect family home with easy access to the Polk Parkway. Clean and ready for new owners with immediate occupancy. All appliances included. Double garage and a private back patio. No rear neighbors & overlooks a large ranch.

23. 2020-09-02
    listed $185,000 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Perfect family home with easy access to the Polk Parkway. Clean and ready for new owners with immediate occupancy. All appliances included. Double garage and a private back patio. No rear neighbors & overlooks a large ranch.

24. 2011-03-02
    soldstatus $68,500
25. 2011-02-04
    listed $68,500
26. 2009-05-18
    historical
27. 2008-07-02
    listed $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,492 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,492
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-28 Sold (MLS) $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-02 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-02 Sold (MLS) $68,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-04 Listed $68,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-02 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,492 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.