🏗️ New Construction
212 Hester Way · Carencro, LA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,269 – $2,357
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 20 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +6.6/30.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- Schools +2.7/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +1.9/10.0
- DSCR +0.8/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$209,677
212 Hester Way · Carencro, LA 70520
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily
· 107 Days on market
Built 2026
6,969 sqft lot
$42/mo HOA · 3% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
* 2/1 buydown with rate as low as 3.99% for the first 12 months. Contact Builder Sales Rep(s) for current incentive details. * BACKS TO POND! The Wagner II G has an open flowing floor plan with upgraded quartz counters, luxury vinyl plank flooring added in primary bedroom & hardware for cabinet. Additional plan features include blinds on all windows, birch cabinets, vinyl plank flooring in living room & all wet areas, kitchen island with undermount sink, smart connect Wi-Fi thermostat, structured wiring panel box, post tension slab, radiant barrier roof decking, low E tilt-in windows & much more!
Key facts
- Quartz counters
- New construction
- Waterfront lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $209,677 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $243,731.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (11.6% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (20.1% below list).
- Recommended offer: $167k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#65 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
- Lafayette Parish (urban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 98 in LA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Carencro Heights Elementary School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #350 of 646 statewide, top 55%, 711 students, 70% FRL); Carencro Middle School (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #145 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 665 students, 75% FRL); Carencro High School (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #127 of 265 statewide, top 49%, 1,096 students, 69% FRL).
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lafayette Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: 333 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,585 units permitted in Lafayette Parish in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lafayette County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$167,492
(20.1% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.69% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.31%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.09%
- DSCR
- 0.68
- GRM
- 12.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $243,731
- List price
- $209,677
- Delta
- -13.97%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 215 Hester Way | 0.05mi | 3/2.0 | 1,225 (-1%) | 5mo | $207,775 | $170 | 92 |
| 214 Hester Way | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,283 (+4%) | 4mo | $210,700 | $164 | 89 |
| 218 Hester Way | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,283 (+4%) | 10mo | $209,895 | $164 | 84 |
| 209 Hester Way | 0.03mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,190 (-4%) | 7mo | $205,695 | $173 | 82 |
| 209 Cainwood Ct | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 | 1,321 (+7%) | 5mo | $210,787 | $160 | 74 |
| 232 Auburn Dr | 0.20mi | 3/1.0 | 1,130 (-9%) | 2mo | $125,000 | $111 | 71 |
| 405 Auburn Dr | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 | 1,345 (+9%) | 4mo | $135,000 | $100 | 67 |
| 302 Auburn Dr | 0.22mi | 3/1.0 | 1,100 (-11%) | 9mo | $75,000 | $68 | 60 |
| 314 Auburn Dr | 0.24mi | 3/1.0 | 1,100 (-11%) | 9mo | $75,000 | $68 | 59 |
| 129 Bradford Dr | 0.40mi | 3/1.5 | 1,362 (+10%) | 4mo | $72,800 | $53 | 58 |
| 310 Bradford Dr | 0.27mi | 3/1.0 | 1,082 (-12%) | 11mo | $119,000 | $110 | 54 |
| 902 Pelican Ridge Cv | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,410 (+14%) | 3mo | $200,000 | $142 | 52 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -28.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.05×
- Total profit
- $-65,123
- Equity at exit
- $36,341
10-year hold
- IRR
- -28.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.31×
- Total profit
- $-89,566
- Equity at exit
- $21,073
Cash invested: $68,245 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Louisiana
- 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 48 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 19.2 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $207,990 ($164/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 446 d
- This list price
- 62% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +20.4% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 70520
- Home prices YoY
- -17.6%
- Active inventory
- 333
- Price-to-rent
- 10.4×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,675 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,278
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$305 /mo · $3,656/yr
- Insurance
- −$102
- HOA
- −$42
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$352
- Net cashflow
- $-403
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,185
Max offer price
$185,390
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-235 | -5% $-319 | +0% $-403 | +5% $-487 | +10% $-572 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-536 | -5% $-469 | +0% $-403 | +5% $-337 | +10% $-271 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-280 | -0.5pp $-341 | base $-403 | +0.5pp $-466 | +1.0pp $-531 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $60,933
- Closing costs
- $7,312
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 2 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 124 Saint Fabian Dr Carencro, LA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1450 | $1,700 | $1.17 | 93d | 1 | 1.03mi |
| 124 Saint Fabian Dr Carencro, LA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1441 | $1,650 | $1.15 | 70d | 1 | 1.03mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Directions available for access to the community
- HOA & community
- Community association with managementAssociation fee $42.50 per month (includes accounting and insurance)
Exterior
- Parking
- Carport (1 space)1 covered parking spaceTotal 1 parking space
- Utilities
- Public sewerElectric service: SLEMCO
- Home design
- Single family residenceUnder constructionResidential zoning
- Construction
- Vinyl sidingFrame constructionComposition roof
- Exterior features
- Outdoor lightingPorchPond (waterfront)
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric range
- Bedrooms
- Bedroom 2Bedroom 3
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl plank
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingHeat pumpCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- High ceilingsWalk-in closet(s)Dining roomKitchenLiving roomQuartz counters
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup
HOA detail $42/mo · $504/yr
- Likely covers
- internet
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $209,677 Active 107 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $209,677 Active 106 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $209,677 Active 105 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $209,677 Active 104 DOM
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2026-08-04days on market $209,677 Active 103 DOM
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2026-08-03days on market $209,677 Active 102 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $209,677 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $209,677 Active 98 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $209,677 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $209,677 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $209,677 Active 91 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $209,677 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $209,677 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $209,677 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $209,677 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $209,677 Active 83 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $209,677 Active 82 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $209,677 Active 81 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $209,677 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $209,677 Active 79 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $209,677 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $209,677 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $209,677 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $209,677 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $209,677 Active 74 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $209,677 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $209,677 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $209,677 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $209,677 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $209,677 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $209,677 Active 68 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $209,677 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $209,677 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $209,677 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $209,677 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $209,677 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $209,677 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $209,677 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $209,677 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $209,677 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $209,677 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $209,677 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $209,677 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $209,677 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $209,677 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $209,677 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $209,677 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $209,677 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $209,677 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $209,677 Active 41 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,099
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,653
- − Property taxes
- −$3,656
- − Insurance
- −$1,219
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,608
- − Management
- −$1,608
- − HOA
- −$504
- − Depreciation
- −$7,090
- Taxable loss
- −$9,238
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,217
- After-tax cash flow
- $-2,621/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos
100/100
None rehab
This newly constructed home in Willowbrook Community is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern features.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
- Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Carencro Heights Elementary School
F
LA #350/646
Nat'l #28,012/41,679
Middle
Carencro Middle School
F
LA #145/218
Nat'l #11,007/14,009
High
Carencro High School
F
LA #127/265
Nat'l #11,215/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lafayette Parish
- NCES district ID
- 2200870
- Math proficiency
- 38% ▼ -32.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 46% ▼ -24.00%
- Median HH income
- $50,238
- Composite
- 36.15/100
- National rank
- #4741
- State rank
- #19 of 98 in LA
C
Composite livability gradescore 69/100
Livability — Carencro
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #65
- US rank
- #8277
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime D
Employment C-
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Lafayette · 280,930 people
- City population
- 20,134
- Metro
- Lafayette, LA
- Population (ZIP)
- 20,134
- Household income
- $65,956
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 15% of renters
Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 280,930 people
- By 2030
- 301,092 · +7.2%
- By 2040
- 339,456 · +20.8%
- By 2050
- 375,156 · +33.5%
- By 2075
- 451,672 · +60.8%
- By 2100
- 497,203 · +77.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 58% Black 32% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 13% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.8% · Other 1.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.1pp no change · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+31.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -33.62%
- Current HPI
- 157.0194
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.29%
- F500 in state
- 10
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Telecommunications | 2 | $23B |
|
||
| Utilities | 1 | $12B |
|
||
| Wholesale / Distribution | 1 | $5B |
|
||
| Advertising | 1 | $2B |
|
||
Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-24 Listed $209,677 Zillow
- 2026-04-23 Listed $209,677 AcadianaMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…