10311 Cedar Lake Rd #103 · Minnetonka, MN 55305

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1969 $136/sqft · 58% below area $570/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2-bed, 2-bath Cedar Lake condo includes spacious living room, patio, open kitchen with stainless steel appliances, informal dining room and walkout patio. Sizable bedrooms, private primary bath with walk-in closet. Shared amenities include pool, hot tub, sauna, entertainment room, heated garage, and more. Recent updates include kitchen appliances, backsplash and countertops. Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Private primary bath
• Patio
• Informal dining room

Tags

• PATIO
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• INFORMAL DINING ROOM
• WALKOUT PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (32.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.5% in Minnetonka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#187 in MN, #3,994 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Hopkins Public School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #75 of 301 in MN (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,816 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.12%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,172
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -56.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-43,811
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,731
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55305

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$570
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $107,816

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10201 Cedar Lake Rd S Unit 201-101 Minnetonka, MN	2.0	1.5	1038	$1,499	$1.44	17d	1	0.06mi
10411 Cedar Lake Rd #312 Hopkins, MN	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,770	$1.48	43d	1	0.15mi
2828 Jordan Ave S Minnetonka, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$1,859	$1.84	4d	9	0.38mi
9700 Waterstone Pl Hopkins, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,233	$2.46	1d	15	0.63mi
10100 Minnetonka Blvd Hopkins, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	43d	1	0.64mi
10213 W 34th St Minnetonka, MN	1.0	1.0	707	$1,295	$1.83	3d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10213-204 Minnetonka, MN	2.0	1.0	948	$1,850	$1.95	3d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10233-103 Minnetonka, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,950	$1.30	43d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10213-302 Minnetonka, MN	2.0	1.0	948	$1,995	$2.10	3d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10233-302 Minnetonka, MN	2.0	1.0	953	$1,650	$1.73	3d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10253-103 Minnetonka, MN	1.0	1.0	707	$1,350	$1.91	4d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10213-202 Minnetonka, MN	2.0	1.0	948	$1,795	$1.89	3d	1	0.83mi
10213 W 34th St Unit 10233-304 Minnetonka, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,350	$1.93	3d	1	0.83mi
3620 Independence Ave S St Louis Park, MN	2.0	2.5	1307	$2,250	$1.72	43d	1	1.10mi
3033 Xylon Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	837	$1,262	$1.51	4d	2	1.26mi
8824 W 35th St Unit 9 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,065	$1.52	24d	1	1.30mi
8817 W 35th St Minneapolis, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$1,350	$1.71	4d	2	1.31mi
8216 W 31st St Unit 07 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	24d	1	1.33mi
8216 W 31st St Unit 08 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	4d	1	1.33mi
1919 Ymca Ln Hopkins, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,180	$2.13	1d	5	1.35mi
8201 W 30 1/2 St Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,295	$1.52	4d	1	1.35mi
3544 Aquila Cir Unit 8 St Louis Park, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,299	$1.62	43d	1	1.35mi
704 Robinwood Ln Hopkins, MN	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,095	$1.75	21d	1	1.38mi
3601 Phillips Pkwy Minneapolis, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,122	$2.31	1d	9	1.39mi
3055 Virginia Ave S Unit 3063-18 St Louis Park, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,075	$1.54	4d	1	1.39mi
3063 Virginia Ave S Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,075	$1.54	4d	1	1.39mi
3101 Virginia Ave S Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$1,360	$1.60	1d	4	1.40mi
3117 Virginia Ave S Unit 102 Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0	970	$1,425	$1.47	43d	1	1.42mi
9920 Wayzata Blvd Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.5	942	$3,236	$3.43	1d	28	1.42mi
1155 Ford Rd #307 Minneapolis, MN	1.0	1.0	1403	$1,900	$1.35	12d	1	1.42mi
1301 Highway 7 Hopkins, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$1,910	$2.43	1d	14	1.43mi
7920 Minnetonka Blvd Minneapolis, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,902	$3.35	1d	13	1.47mi
460 5th Ave N Hopkins, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,565	$1.56	3d	6	1.49mi
11700 Wayzata Blvd Hopkins, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,740	$2.34	1d	14	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $570 · $6,840/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $159,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-01-16
    listed $165,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Spacious 2-bed, 2-bath Cedar Lake condo includes spacious living room, patio, open kitchen with stainless steel appliances, informal dining room and walkout patio. Sizable bedrooms, private primary bath with walk-in closet. Shared amenities include pool, hot tub, sauna, entertainment room, heated garage, and more. Recent updates include kitchen appliances, backsplash and countertops. Don't miss this one!

16. 2026-01-15
    historical $165,000 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Spacious 2-bed, 2-bath Cedar Lake condo includes spacious living room, patio, open kitchen with stainless steel appliances, informal dining room and walkout patio. Sizable bedrooms, private primary bath with walk-in closet. Shared amenities include pool, hot tub, sauna, entertainment room, heated garage, and more. Recent updates include kitchen appliances, backsplash and countertops. Don't miss this one!

17. 2025-01-01
    historical
18. 2024-10-25
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2024-10-24
    historical
20. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus $140,000
21. 2017-10-31
    soldstatus $127,500
22. 2017-10-12
    soldstatus $127,500 Sold
23. 2017-09-28
    status Pending
24. 2017-09-11
    historical Contingent - Inspection
25. 2017-08-29
    listed $129,500 Active
26. 2011-04-07
    soldstatus $55,000
27. 2011-03-02
    historical
28. 2011-01-14
    listed $61,875
29. 2010-08-11
    historical
30. 2010-06-15
    listed $79,900
31. 2010-06-14
    historical
32. 2010-03-15
    listed $79,900
33. 2003-04-01
    soldstatus $118,000
34. 1997-12-04
    soldstatus $70,000
35. 1997-10-29
    soldstatus $72,900
36. 1997-09-06
    historical
37. 1997-09-05
    listed $72,900
38. 1997-09-05
    historical
39. 1997-07-07
    listed $72,900
40. 1994-08-16
    soldstatus $57,900
41. 1994-08-09
    listed $57,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$48/yr (+$4/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − HOA: −$6,840
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$6,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2714260
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,915
• Composite: 46.44/100
• National rank: #2448
• State rank: #75 of 301 in MN

Livability — Minnetonka

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #3994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Minnetonka, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 41,857
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 21,068
• Household income: $104,914
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Asian 10% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -358.96%
• Current HPI: 231.3421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+185.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Coming Soon $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Listed $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-24 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $127,500 Public Records
• 2017-10-12 Sold (MLS) $127,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-11 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-29 Listed $129,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-07 Sold (MLS) $55,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-14 Listed $61,875 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-15 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-15 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-29 Sold (MLS) $72,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-09-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-09-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-09-05 Listed $72,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-07 Listed $72,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-16 Sold (MLS) $57,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-09 Listed $57,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.