1070 Holly Ln · Denver, PA 17517

$350,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1989 7,405 sqft lot Est $368k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Bi-Level in desirable Cocalico neighborhood. Can you imagine coming home after a long day to relax on the large deck overlooking the mountains in the background. .. just wait until all those leaves start to change colors! This 3 bedroom, 2 full bath, finished family room and more! Home will be sure to impress you but be careful it won't last long! Qualifies for no money down financing! There is extra storage added above the high foyer for your added bonus!

Key facts

• Large deck
• New anderson windows
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• STUNNING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OVERSIZED ATTACHED GARAGE
• NEW ANDERSON WINDOWS
• LOW MAINTENANCE GUTTERS
• UPDATED HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Not located in a federal flood zone; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized 2-car garage with inside access; Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Yard backs to trees; Front yard with landscaping; Level lot; Above-grade and below-grade finished living areas

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Ductless / mini-split cooling (electric); Electric baseboard heating; Electric hot water; 200+ amp electrical service
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#592 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cocalico SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #130 of 539 in PA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Denver El Sch (math 51% / reading 63%, grade C+, #444 of 1,518 statewide, top 32%, 437 students, 46% FRL); Cocalico Ms (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D+, #172 of 512 statewide, top 35%, 682 students, 43% FRL); Cocalico Shs (math 78% / reading 24%, grade D+, #121 of 437 statewide, top 28%, 1,008 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.31%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $367,952
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
842 N 4th St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+5%)	1mo	$385,000	$244	82
985 S Ridge Rd	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,521 (+1%)	10mo	$486,000	$320	80
900 Evergreen St	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,364 (-10%)	11mo	$333,000	$244	69
817 Evergreen St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,561 (+4%)	19mo	$330,000	$211	67
667 Poplar St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+4%)	11mo	$306,100	$195	56
842 Evergreen St	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,690 (+12%)	12mo	$361,000	$214	54
755 Poplar St	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (-7%)	6mo	$540,000	$386	50
675 S Ridge Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,635 (+8%)	3mo	$740,000	$453	43
850 Locust St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	14mo	$310,000	$231	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-32,579
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,802
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17517

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,197/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,021

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $577	-5% $478	+0% $378	+5% $279	+10% $180
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $240	+0% $378	+5% $517	+10% $655
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $467	base $378	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
985 S Ridge Rd Denver, PA	4.0	1.5	1521	$3,500	$2.30	44d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $350,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 455-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $350,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,197 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,863 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 15.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,197
• − Insurance: −$2,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$1,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$269
• After-tax cash flow: $4,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cocalico SD
• NCES district ID: 4206270
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 46.09/100
• National rank: #2512
• State rank: #130 of 539 in PA

Livability — Denver

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #5643

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denver, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,045

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.05%
• Current HPI: 262.8646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+224.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-26 Price Changed $244,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-20 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $184,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) $184,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-22 Listed $184,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $136,291 Public Records
• 2013-09-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-03-14 Listed $169,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-12 Sold (MLS) $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-12 Sold (MLS) $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-07-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-07-05 Listed $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-07-05 Listed $157,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,197 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.