2626 Gemini Dr · Auburn Hills, MI 48360

$365,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,237 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1978 10,454 sqft lot Est $427k · 15% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate sale - sold as-is. Located in Orion Township, this home offers access to a private beach and lake privileges through the homeowners association. Features include vinyl replacement windows newer roof and furnace(2024). attic space had new insulation (blown in and sheets) put in (2024) Any contents in home at closing stay.

Key facts

• Lake privileges
• Newer roof
• Private beach

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• LAKE PRIVILEGES
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• NEWER ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: KEATINGTONNO 5; Directions: From Silverbell Rd, head north on Baldwin Rd, turn right onto Waldon Rd, then left onto Gemini Dr. Property is on the right.; Cross streets: Silverbell Rd & Waldon Rd
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $280 (about $23.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry; Wood siding exterior
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 67 x 120 (0.24 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Nine total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($396/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Auburn Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#151 in MI, #3,766 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Webber School (math 70% / reading 76%, grade A, #50 of 1,397 statewide, top 4%, 518 students, 20% FRL); Waldon Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #90 of 493 statewide, top 19%, 547 students, 26% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $292,538 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $427,267
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2710 Mercury Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,138 (-4%)	9mo	$460,000	$215	80
2831 Aurora Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,251 (+1%)	12mo	$430,000	$191	78
2965 Armstrong Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,374 (+6%)	2mo	$425,000	$179	77
2419 Armstrong Dr	0.16mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,151 (-4%)	2mo	$387,500	$180	76
2706 Gemini Dr	0.14mi	4/1.5	2,150 (-4%)	13mo	$450,000	$209	72
2686 Orbit Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,985 (-11%)	10mo	$435,000	$219	63
2880 Wareing Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,030 (-9%)	7mo	$382,500	$188	58
3311 Hickory Dr	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,202 (-2%)	11mo	$410,000	$186	53
2790 Wareing Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-10%)	3mo	$406,000	$203	52
3411 Ashley Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,903 (-15%)	0mo	$370,000	$194	44
2337 Eaton Gate Rd	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+9%)	13mo	$405,000	$166	42
3260 Regency Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,922 (-14%)	10mo	$339,000	$176	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-57,148
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-47,486
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48360

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,266/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,884

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $136	+0% $33	+5% $-70	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-83	+0% $33	+5% $149	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $126	base $33	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Estate sale - sold as-is. Located in Orion Township, this home offers access to a private beach and lake privileges through the homeowners association. Features include vinyl replacement windows newer roof and furnace(2024). attic space had new insulation (blown in and sheets) put in (2024) Any contents in home at closing stay.

2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Estate sale - sold as-is. Located in Orion Township, this home offers access to a private beach and lake privileges through the homeowners association. Features include vinyl replacement windows newer roof and furnace(2024). attic space had new insulation (blown in and sheets) put in (2024) Any contents in home at closing stay.

3. 2026-04-25
   listed $365,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Estate sale - sold as-is. Located in Orion Township, this home offers access to a private beach and lake privileges through the homeowners association. Features include vinyl replacement windows newer roof and furnace(2024). attic space had new insulation (blown in and sheets) put in (2024) Any contents in home at closing stay.

4. 2026-04-25
   listed $365,000 Active 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Estate sale - sold as-is. Located in Orion Township, this home offers access to a private beach and lake privileges through the homeowners association. Features include vinyl replacement windows newer roof and furnace(2024). attic space had new insulation (blown in and sheets) put in (2024) Any contents in home at closing stay.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,266 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,677/yr (+$140/mo · 74.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,266
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,808
• − Management: −$2,808
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$5,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,426
• After-tax cash flow: $1,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Auburn Hills

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #3766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,514
• Population (ZIP): 12,250

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -226.18%
• Current HPI: 180.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-25 Listed $365,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-25 Listed $365,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,266 · +33.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.