23 Aspen Ln · New Kingstown, PA 17015

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1985 $53/sqft · 33% above area Est $38k · 33% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No False Advertising! This is actually a Renovated Mobile Home! Tough to believe with the open floor plan, Large 3 Bedrooms and ample closet space how affordable your next place could be!!! This Move-In ready home is perfect for first time home buyer or someone who's simply tired of renting! New Flooring & Painting Throughout. Contemporary kitchen with enviable hardware. * New Kitchen Appliances. Off-Street Parking for 2 Cars. Covered Concrete Patio where you can add a picnic table and grill for those upcoming summer nights. No Need to rent a storage unit here. . . .. there's even a detached shed for your extra stuff! Schedule your showing today! "Some photos are virtually staged for visualization. Unstaged photos are included to show the home without added furnishings or de'cor. "

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 2.8% in New Kingstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,606 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 404% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.91%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,598
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 32.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Buckeye Ln	0.27mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+10%)	6mo	$1,500	$1	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $61,549
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.5%
• Equity multiple: 11.25×
• Total profit: $143,252
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17015

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $170/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $375

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   No False Advertising! This is actually a Renovated Mobile Home! Tough to believe with the open floor plan, Large 3 Bedrooms and ample closet space how affordable your next place could be!!! This Move-In ready home is perfect for first time home buyer or someone who's simply tired of renting! New Flooring & Painting Throughout. Contemporary kitchen with enviable hardware. * New Kitchen Appliances. Off-Street Parking for 2 Cars. Covered Concrete Patio where you can add a picnic table and grill for those upcoming summer nights. No Need to rent a storage unit here. . . .. there's even a detached shed for your extra stuff! Schedule your showing today! "Some photos are virtually staged for visualization. Unstaged photos are included to show the home without added furnishings or de'cor. "

2. 2026-04-13
   status Active 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   No False Advertising! This is actually a Renovated Mobile Home! Tough to believe with the open floor plan, Large 3 Bedrooms and ample closet space how affordable your next place could be!!! This Move-In ready home is perfect for first time home buyer or someone who's simply tired of renting! New Flooring & Painting Throughout. Contemporary kitchen with enviable hardware. * New Kitchen Appliances. Off-Street Parking for 2 Cars. Covered Concrete Patio where you can add a picnic table and grill for those upcoming summer nights. No Need to rent a storage unit here. . . .. there's even a detached shed for your extra stuff! Schedule your showing today! "Some photos are virtually staged for visualization. Unstaged photos are included to show the home without added furnishings or de'cor. "

3. 2026-02-28
   historical 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   No False Advertising! This is actually a Renovated Mobile Home! Tough to believe with the open floor plan, Large 3 Bedrooms and ample closet space how affordable your next place could be!!! This Move-In ready home is perfect for first time home buyer or someone who's simply tired of renting! New Flooring & Painting Throughout. Contemporary kitchen with enviable hardware. * New Kitchen Appliances. Off-Street Parking for 2 Cars. Covered Concrete Patio where you can add a picnic table and grill for those upcoming summer nights. No Need to rent a storage unit here. . . .. there's even a detached shed for your extra stuff! Schedule your showing today! "Some photos are virtually staged for visualization. Unstaged photos are included to show the home without added furnishings or de'cor. "

4. 2026-02-28
   price $49,900 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   No False Advertising! This is actually a Renovated Mobile Home! Tough to believe with the open floor plan, Large 3 Bedrooms and ample closet space how affordable your next place could be!!! This Move-In ready home is perfect for first time home buyer or someone who's simply tired of renting! New Flooring & Painting Throughout. Contemporary kitchen with enviable hardware. * New Kitchen Appliances. Off-Street Parking for 2 Cars. Covered Concrete Patio where you can add a picnic table and grill for those upcoming summer nights. No Need to rent a storage unit here. . . .. there's even a detached shed for your extra stuff! Schedule your showing today! "Some photos are virtually staged for visualization. Unstaged photos are included to show the home without added furnishings or de'cor. "

5. 2026-02-27
   listed $9,900 Active 808-char remark

   Show marketing remark (808 chars)

   No False Advertising! This is actually a Renovated Mobile Home! Tough to believe with the open floor plan, Large 3 Bedrooms and ample closet space how affordable your next place could be!!! This Move-In ready home is perfect for first time home buyer or someone who's simply tired of renting! New Flooring & Painting Throughout. Contemporary kitchen with enviable hardware. * New Kitchen Appliances. Off-Street Parking for 2 Cars. Covered Concrete Patio where you can add a picnic table and grill for those upcoming summer nights. No Need to rent a storage unit here. . . .. there's even a detached shed for your extra stuff! Schedule your showing today! "Some photos are virtually staged for visualization. Unstaged photos are included to show the home without added furnishings or de'cor. "

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $170 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $479 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 182.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$170
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $13,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,137
• After-tax cash flow: $9,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Kingstown

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1606
• US rank: #21798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,385
• Household income: $86,981
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.66%
• Current HPI: 265.9175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+404.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $9,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $170 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.