905 E Clay St · Decatur, IL 62521

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

Built 1924 4,620 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newer windows, furnace, exterior doors, roof and siding. Corner lot with Lg front porch and newer handi-cap ramp. Original woodwork with narrow hard wood floors in bedrooms. Walk up stairs to attic can be finished for 2 additional BR's. Selling As-Is

Key facts

• Darling front porch
• New kitchen
• Side ramp

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL WOODWORK
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• SIDE RAMP
• DARLING FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($924 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $75k implies a 306% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $73,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.41%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $2,792
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $21,656
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62521

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $627

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $256	+0% $234	+5% $213	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $198	+0% $234	+5% $271	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $253	base $234	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
759 E Lawrence St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	1080	$695	$0.64	44d	1	0.27mi
1237 E Johns Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	44d	1	0.29mi
1245 Sedgwick St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1055	$895	$0.85	44d	1	0.31mi
803 E Whitmer St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	900	$935	$1.04	44d	1	0.31mi
1304 E Lawrence St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	44d	1	0.37mi
698 S Stone St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	0.46mi
165 S East Ave Unit NA Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	44d	1	0.47mi
1455 E Whitmer St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1050	$915	$0.87	44d	1	0.51mi
347 N Stone St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	44d	1	0.55mi
1524 E Prairie St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,250	$0.89	44d	1	0.56mi
520 S Church St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,199	$0.96	14d	1	0.62mi
150 W Wood St Decatur, IL	1.0	1.0	1228	$1,100	$0.90	44d	1	0.63mi
249 N 17th St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	700	$995	$1.42	44d	1	0.66mi
1718 E Cantrell St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.72mi
1035 S Main St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	847	$880	$1.04	14d	7	0.83mi
2032 E North St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	754	$900	$1.19	44d	1	0.97mi
2135 E Prairie St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,100	$0.98	44d	1	0.99mi
853 N College St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	44d	1	1.17mi
1245 N Union St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1111	$995	$0.90	44d	1	1.30mi
1045 N Monroe St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,000	$0.91	44d	1	1.34mi
2448 E Wood St Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	14d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $74,900 Active
4. 2007-08-16
   soldstatus $18,466
5. 2007-08-15
   soldstatus $18,500 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Newer windows, furnace, exterior doors, roof and siding. Corner lot with Lg front porch and newer handi-cap ramp. Original woodwork with narrow hard wood floors in bedrooms. Walk up stairs to attic can be finished for 2 additional BR's. Selling As-Is

6. 2007-06-26
   listed $22,900 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Newer windows, furnace, exterior doors, roof and siding. Corner lot with Lg front porch and newer handi-cap ramp. Original woodwork with narrow hard wood floors in bedrooms. Walk up stairs to attic can be finished for 2 additional BR's. Selling As-Is

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 48.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$887
• − Management: −$887
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $1,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $2,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 32,665
• Household income: $66,337
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 640.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 17% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.96%
• Current HPI: 180.9274
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+227.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — CIBR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $74,900 CIBR
• 2007-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $18,466 Public Records
• 2007-08-15 Sold (MLS) $18,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-26 Listed $22,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $860 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.