549 Blake Rd · Hamilton, PA 16912

$136,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2015 4.70 ac lot $152/sqft · 5% above area Est $172k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recreational use wood frame cabin with detached garage and pond on 4.7 acres. There is public water to property but it cannot be hooked up to the cabin unless public sewer is installed or proper approved septic system is installed and approved by the Township. There is an out house on a tank that can be used but must be pumped out. Cabin has roughed in plumbing for future bathroom and kitchen use. Rear two tier deck Seller is making improvements as weather permits. The price will be adjusted as they are made.

Key facts

• Pond
• Two tier deck
• Wood frame cabin

Tags

• WOOD FRAME CABIN
• DETACHED GARAGE
• POND
• PUBLIC WATER
• ROUGHED IN PLUMBING
• TWO TIER DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Southern Tioga SD (rural): math 25% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #421 of 539 in PA (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 32 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($940 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $136k implies a 1600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,101 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,823
• List price: $136,000
• Delta: -20.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $18,505
• Equity at exit: $75,739

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $66,465
• Equity at exit: $129,627

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16912

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $103,979

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-143	+0% $-181	+5% $-220	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-214	+0% $-181	+5% $-148	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-147	base $-181	+0.5pp $-217	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $136,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $136,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $136,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $136,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $136,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Recreational use wood frame cabin with detached garage and pond on 4.7 acres. There is public water to property but it cannot be hooked up to the cabin unless public sewer is installed or proper approved septic system is installed and approved by the Township. There is an out house on a tank that can be used but must be pumped out. Cabin has roughed in plumbing for future bathroom and kitchen use. Rear two tier deck Seller is making improvements as weather permits. The price will be adjusted as they are made.

17. 2026-02-16
    listed $130,000 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Recreational use wood frame cabin with detached garage and pond on 4.7 acres. There is public water to property but it cannot be hooked up to the cabin unless public sewer is installed or proper approved septic system is installed and approved by the Township. There is an out house on a tank that can be used but must be pumped out. Cabin has roughed in plumbing for future bathroom and kitchen use. Rear two tier deck Seller is making improvements as weather permits. The price will be adjusted as they are made.

18. 2005-06-03
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$620/yr (+$52/mo · 68.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 3 d/yr ≥90°F today · 7 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$807
• − Management: −$807
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable loss: −$4,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Tioga SD
• NCES district ID: 4222370
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,260
• Composite: 29.72/100
• National rank: #6451
• State rank: #421 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hamilton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,524

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,253 people
• By 2030: 38,795 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 35,376 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 32,081 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 24,341 · -39.5%
• By 2100: 17,180 · -57.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Slovak 2% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.6% · R 75.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.2 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.84%
• Current HPI: 233.5174
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1600.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $136,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $910 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.