9414 Harvest Bay Ct · Sienna, TX 77459

$269,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · Townhouse public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,155 sqft lot Est $360k · 25% under $129/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This TWO-STORY HAVEN plan is thoughtfully designed with space and high ceilings featuring 3 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, a flex room, a covered patio, a backyard, and a 2-car garage. Easy-to-maintain tile floor throughout the main living area. The kitchen features white cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and pendant lighting. Unwind in the spacious primary bedroom with an ensuite bath. Gutters, full landscaping with sprinklers, 1-2-10 builder warranty give you peace of mind! Enjoy Sienna's resort-style amenities- 5 pools, 2 fitness centers, and tons of events for residents to enjoy! This home is walking distance to the new Sienna Oaks Rec Center. Schedule a showing today! MOVE-IN READY!

Key facts

• $129 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $266k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.91%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,766
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1571 Rustling Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,941 (+12%)	2mo	$299,500	$154	75
1543 Cathedral Bend Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-6%)	10mo	$299,950	$183	75
1554 Rustling Creek Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,858 (+7%)	14mo	$309,000	$166	73
10302 Water Harbor Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-0%)	14mo	$358,475	$207	64
10306 Water Harbor Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	12mo	$403,546	$228	64
1519 Cathedral Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+10%)	18mo	$299,999	$157	63
10318 Water Harbor Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-0%)	9mo	$359,231	$208	62
1623 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	12mo	$339,814	$192	62
10319 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+2%)	12mo	$398,068	$225	62
1610 Sterling Water Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-0%)	13mo	$328,240	$190	61
1610 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-0%)	18mo	$376,960	$218	58
10310 Water Harbor Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-8%)	13mo	$390,289	$243	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $8,070
• Equity at exit: $56,606

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $38,724
• Equity at exit: $52,431

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$759 /mo · $9,111/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$842
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,058

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $903	-5% $826	+0% $750	+5% $674	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $592	+0% $750	+5% $908	+10% $1,067
Rate	-1.0pp $886	-0.5pp $819	base $750	+0.5pp $680	+1.0pp $609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.40mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.57mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $129 · $1,548/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $269,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $278,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 695-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $279,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,111 · $759/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,111 · $759/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$9,111
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,847
• − Management: −$3,847
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $5,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,301
• After-tax cash flow: $7,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhouse features a modern kitchen, good bathrooms, and well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior and new ceiling fans can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Modern fans improve comfort and can attract renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Modern fans improve comfort and can attract renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $318,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $322,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $294,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+112.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,111 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.