9414 Harvest Bay Ct · Sienna, TX 77459

$249,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,155 sqft lot 2-car garage $144/sqft · 30% below area Est $349k · 28% under $129/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This TWO-STORY HAVEN plan is thoughtfully designed with space and high ceilings featuring 3 Bedrooms, 2.5 Baths, a flex room, a covered patio, a backyard, and a 2-car garage. Easy-to-maintain tile floor throughout the main living area. The kitchen features white cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and pendant lighting. Unwind in the spacious primary bedroom with an ensuite bath. Gutters, full landscaping with sprinklers, 1-2-10 builder warranty give you peace of mind! Enjoy Sienna's resort-style amenities- 5 pools, 2 fitness centers, and tons of events for residents to enjoy! This home is walking distance to the new Sienna Oaks Rec Center. Schedule a showing today! MOVE-IN READY!

Key facts

• Resort-style pools
• Flexible bonus room
• Covered patio

Tags

• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• PROFESSIONAL LANDSCAPING
• RESORT-STYLE POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $838 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.37%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,854
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -28.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9442 Spring Rain Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-2%)	5mo	$337,990	$198	85
9421 Autumn Vale Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-2%)	0mo	$345,000	$202	85
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,838 (+6%)	4mo	$330,000	$180	80
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,835 (+6%)	2mo	$350,000	$191	79
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,866 (+7%)	3mo	$354,990	$190	76
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+9%)	2mo	$352,990	$186	72
10307 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-7%)	2mo	$352,454	$219	62
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+10%)	2mo	$349,990	$183	61
1308 Shaded Rock Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$188	58
1208 Shaded Rock Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+10%)	1mo	$360,000	$188	55
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+14%)	4mo	$365,115	$185	52
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+14%)	4mo	$392,844	$199	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $15,886
• Equity at exit: $52,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $52,137
• Equity at exit: $48,545

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,990 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1543
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$759 /mo · $9,111/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$129
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$835
• Net cashflow: $838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,915

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $980	-5% $909	+0% $838	+5% $767	+10% $697
Rent	-10% $524	-5% $681	+0% $838	+5% $995	+10% $1,152
Rate	-1.0pp $964	-0.5pp $902	base $838	+0.5pp $773	+1.0pp $707

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	93d	1	0.40mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.57mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.57mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	0.74mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	3d	1	0.74mi
10602 William Park Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	38d	1	0.79mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sienna Community HOAAnnual association feeHOA covers clubhouse and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool and clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property2 storiesFull ownershipSlab foundationFacing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and wood siding exteriorShingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemPaved concrete driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopOvenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalTrash compactorRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level)Guest quarters (second level) - two roomsBonus room (second level)Family room (first level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboCeiling fansLoft
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedLaundry in utility room

HOA detail $129/mo · $1,548/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-07-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-07-28
   days on market $254,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-07-26
   days on market $254,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-07-24
   days on market $254,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-07-23
   days on market $254,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-07-22
   days on market $254,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-07-21
    days on market $254,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-07-20
    days on market $254,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $254,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on marketlisting id $254,900 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,900 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,900 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,900 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $259,900 Active 36 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,900 Active 31 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,900 Active 30 DOM
24. 2026-07-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 29 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 28 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $259,900 Active 27 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    price $263,900 Active 26 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 26 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $264,900 Active 25 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $264,900 Active 24 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,900 Active 23 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $264,900 Active 22 DOM
33. 2026-06-26
    days on market $264,900 Active 21 DOM
34. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $264,900 Active 19 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $269,900 Active 17 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $269,900 Active 16 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $269,900 Active 13 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    price $269,900 Active 10 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $278,900 Active 10 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $278,900 Active 8 DOM
43. 2026-06-10
    price $278,900 Active 4 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    remarks 695-char remark
48. 2026-06-04
    listed $279,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,111 · $759/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,111 · $759/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$9,111
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,817
• − Management: −$3,817
• − HOA: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $6,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,656
• After-tax cash flow: $8,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,690–$26,070 screening

This move-in ready townhouse features a modern kitchen, good bathrooms, and well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior and new ceiling fans can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Modern fans improve comfort and can attract renters ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sienna Community HOAAnnual association feeHOA covers clubhouse and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool and clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property2 storiesFull ownershipSlab foundationFacing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and wood siding exteriorShingle and wood roof
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/irrigation systemPaved concrete driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktopOvenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalTrash compactorRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level)Guest quarters (second level) - two roomsBonus room (second level)Family room (first level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboCeiling fansLoft
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedLaundry in utility room

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Price Changed $263,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $278,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $318,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $322,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Listed $294,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+112.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,111 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.