4038 Bay Ct · Brookshire, TX 77423

$352,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $351k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The two-story Bristol floor plan is the answer for the home buyer looking for a spacious home to meet their needs. The primary suite is privately situated on the first floor, separate from the secondary bedrooms in the home. The 5th bedroom is also located on the first floor, offering flexibility in how to use the space - if not an additional bedroom, a home office or nursery are some ideas that come to mind! Combined formals with an island kitchen make the Bristol a modern open-concept design that is so popular with today's home buyer. And the upstairs gameroom offers a secondary entertainment space for the home.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Upstairs gameroom

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• UPSTAIRS GAMEROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $352,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area of 2439

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built BRISTOL plan; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $353k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $353k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.9% in Brookshire — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,544/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $351,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4019 Crowning Ct	0.09mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	1mo	$334,900	$137	93
4018 Crowning Ct	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	3mo	$349,900	$143	90
4015 Ancient Honor Dr	0.15mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	6mo	$357,900	$147	86
4022 Ancient Honor Dr	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,439 (0%)	6mo	$358,900	$147	85
4006 Crowning Ct	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	77
4022 Crowning Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	1mo	$324,900	$144	77
4023 Crowning Ct	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	2mo	$324,900	$144	77
3930 Windy Whisper Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	4mo	$304,900	$135	74
32855 Laureate Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	3mo	$324,900	$144	73
4003 Ancient Honor Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	5mo	$329,900	$146	71
3931 Accolade Xing	0.13mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,178 (-11%)	4mo	$319,900	$147	68
3906 Flora Field Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-7%)	6mo	$319,900	$142	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-44,507
• Equity at exit: $52,619

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-49,051
• Equity at exit: $30,512

Cash invested: $98,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,851
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$441 /mo · $5,294/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,087

Max offer price $352,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,225
• Closing costs: $10,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	12d	1	0.77mi
33002 Franklin Brooks Dr Pattison, TX	4.0	3.5	3255	$4,385	$1.35	1d	1	0.98mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.5	2992	$3,637	$1.22	1d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $352,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $352,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $352,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $352,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $352,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $352,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   remarks 621-char remark
8. 2026-06-01
   listed $352,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,768
• − Property taxes: −$5,294
• − Insurance: −$1,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,403
• − Management: −$3,403
• − Depreciation: −$10,266
• Taxable loss: −$1,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$327
• After-tax cash flow: $4,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B