10 Arboles Ln · River Park, FL 34952

$89,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 367 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently Remodeled 2 Bed, 1.5 Bath in Spanish Lakes Riverfront - Move-In Ready! This beautifully updated home has everything new and ready for you to enjoy! Featuring: New Metal Roof, New Water Heater, New Kitchen & Bathrooms, New Flooring Throughout, New Refrigerator & Stove, New Washer & Great Functioning Dryer, Relax in the spacious screened Florida room, perfect for morning coffee or evening breezes. A large shed offers plenty of storage, and hurricane shutters provide added peace of mind. Located in the desirable Spanish Lakes Riverfront 55+ community, you'll enjoy a peaceful lifestyle with fantastic amenities. Call today to schedule your private showing—this on

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOMS
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW REFRIGERATOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed; Located in a senior community
• HOA & community: Community association with amenities including clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, fitness center, tennis courts, pickleball courts, bocce, shuffleboard, golf course, boating, billiard room, dog park, manager on site

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered space); 1 open parking space
• Security: Security patrol
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (modular); Single-story; Faces south; Resale model FUQU
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum skirt; Metal roof; Mobile dimensions approximately 37' x 24'; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened patio; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Stacked bedroom layout; Blinds; Bay window; Single-hung metal windows; Sliding windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 6.3% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.86%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $23,400
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Cozumel Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	840 (-7%)	8mo	$20,000	$24	74
12 Nuestra Calle Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0	984 (+9%)	6mo	$26,000	$26	70
5 Espanola Ln	0.57mi	2/1.5	850 (-6%)	16mo	$33,000	$39	51
1 Quintana Roo Ct	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+11%)	12mo	$18,000	$18	49
8471 Florence Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0	966 (+7%)	6mo	$110,000	$114	47
37 El Camino Real	0.74mi	2/2.0	984 (+9%)	1mo	$15,000	$15	47
541 Natalie Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+15%)	22mo	$85,000	$82	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $37,655
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $94,492
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 E Arbor Ave Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$2,550	$2.65	14d	1	0.69mi
7700 Pine Lakes Blvd Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$1,878	$1.84	14d	16	0.73mi
13 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,375	$1.72	23d	1	0.95mi
326 Shady Ln Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1030	$2,250	$2.18	23d	1	0.99mi
8 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,500	$1.88	23d	1	1.01mi
11 Lake Vista Trl #206 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	1.02mi
4 Lake Vista Trl #202 Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,700	$1.57	21d	1	1.07mi
28 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,600	$2.00	23d	1	1.10mi
30 Lake Vista Trl #205 Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0	1.5	800	$1,300	$1.62	23d	1	1.10mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	1.12mi
650 SE Evergreen Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$2,095	$2.15	14d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,000 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $89,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-02-18
   price $89,000
4. 2025-06-24
   price $95,000
5. 2025-05-29
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $9,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,237
• After-tax cash flow: $7,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — River Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #8159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: River Park, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $89,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $95,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $105,000 Beaches MLS