16127 Long Rd · Sheldon, TX 77044

$209,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1958 0.31 ac lot $149/sqft · at area comps Est $202k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is being sold AS-IS. Estate Sale. This home is being listed for sale with connecting lot at 16241 Long Rd. Home may be a teardown or significant fixer. The house lot is 13,504 with an existing structure of approx. 1410 sq ft. (room sizes approx, must verify) The adjoining lot has a shop on it. The lot is 13,504 sq feet. PLEASE USE THE LOT ADDRESS FOR DIRECTIONS.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-139/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Sheldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,704 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,427
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 3.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16214 Dunman Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (+6%)	2mo	$150,000	$100	65
15935 Dunman Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,274 (-10%)	2mo	$189,999	$149	57
15902 Dunman Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,203 (-15%)	4mo	$150,000	$125	48
15802 Acorn Clearing Path Path	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (+14%)	22mo	$249,900	$155	35
11023 West Fall Fern Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+9%)	19mo	$307,000	$199	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-25,560
• Equity at exit: $44,828

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-25,513
• Equity at exit: $42,260

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,063/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $207,856

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $107	-5% $48	+0% $-12	+5% $-71	+10% $-130
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-79	+0% $-12	+5% $56	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $42	base $-12	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-03-27
    listed $209,900 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Home is being sold AS-IS. Estate Sale. This home is being listed for sale with connecting lot at 16241 Long Rd. Home may be a teardown or significant fixer. The house lot is 13,504 with an existing structure of approx. 1410 sq ft. (room sizes approx, must verify) The adjoining lot has a shop on it. The lot is 13,504 sq feet. PLEASE USE THE LOT ADDRESS FOR DIRECTIONS.

13. 2003-10-06
    soldstatus
14. 1994-05-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,063 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,778/yr (+$148/mo · 86.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$2,063
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,770
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$905
• After-tax cash flow: $766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sheldon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2003-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-05-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,063 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.