165 Keel Ln #4 · Kimberling City, MO 65686

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Other · 507 Days on market

Built 1976 $136/sqft · 26% below area Est $217k · 26% under $406/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• $406 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• ACCESS TO TABLE ROCK LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-155/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.6% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 507 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 507 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,642
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -26.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-26,562
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,487
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65686

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $417/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$406
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $157,613

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $32	+0% $-13	+5% $-58	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-80	+0% $-13	+5% $54	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $28	base $-13	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12056 Missouri 13 Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,250	$0.86	44d	1	0.96mi
2 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
4 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
6 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
8 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
10 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
3 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $406 · $4,872/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 507 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 506 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 505 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 504 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 503 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 501 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 500 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 497 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 496 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 495 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 492 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 491 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 490 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 489 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 488 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 487 DOM
17. 2026-04-19
    price $159,900 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

18. 2026-04-19
    status Active 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

19. 2025-09-19
    historical Active Under Contract 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

20. 2025-08-27
    price $164,900 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

21. 2025-07-28
    price $169,900 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

22. 2025-06-13
    price $179,900 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

23. 2025-02-26
    price $189,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

24. 2025-01-28
    listed $199,900 Active 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    NOW comes furnished!! What a wonderful 2 bedroom 2 bath condo located in the heart of Kimberling City! This exceptionally appointed condominium is waiting for you to call it home. Walk in to a welcoming and inviting living room with wood burning fireplace to snuggle up to and be mesmerized by the crackling of the fire. Read a book or just sit back and relax. There is a nice spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space and cabinets to inspire your inner chef. There is even room for a table. The split bedroom floor plan allows for plenty of privacy with a primary bedroom with ensuite bath. Sit outside and savor your morning cup of joe as you take in all the Ozarks have to offer. The community has a club house, pool and access to Table Rock Lake to bring it all together for that true Ozarks experience. Don't miss the BOAT on this gem!!

25. 2023-10-02
    historical
26. 2023-08-22
    price $215,000
27. 2023-07-07
    listed $220,000 Active
28. 2023-07-01
    historical
29. 2023-05-08
    price $219,900
30. 2023-02-04
    price $224,900
31. 2022-11-14
    price $229,900
32. 2022-10-17
    status Active
33. 2022-10-13
    historical
34. 2022-09-07
    price $234,900
35. 2022-08-11
    price $249,900
36. 2022-08-01
    price $274,900
37. 2022-07-18
    price $284,900
38. 2022-07-12
    listed $299,000 Active
39. 2019-07-31
    soldstatus
40. 2019-07-30
    soldstatus
41. 2019-05-25
    listed $79,900
42. 2018-07-06
    listed $79,900
43. 2005-12-03
    soldstatus
44. 1995-10-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $417 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,134/yr (+$95/mo · 272.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$417
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − HOA: −$4,872
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kimberling City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,487

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.17%
• Current HPI: 198.5699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $159,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-09-19 Contingent — SOMO
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $164,900 SOMO
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $169,900 SOMO
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $179,900 SOMO
• 2025-02-26 Price Changed $189,000 SOMO
• 2025-01-28 Listed $199,900 SOMO
• 2023-10-02 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $215,000 SOMO
• 2023-07-07 Listed $220,000 SOMO
• 2023-07-01 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-05-08 Price Changed $219,900 SOMO
• 2023-02-04 Price Changed $224,900 SOMO
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $229,900 SOMO
• 2022-10-17 Relisted — SOMO
• 2022-10-13 Delisted — SOMO
• 2022-09-07 Price Changed $234,900 SOMO
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $249,900 SOMO
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $274,900 SOMO
• 2022-07-18 Price Changed $284,900 SOMO
• 2022-07-12 Listed $299,000 SOMO
• 2019-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-07-30 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2019-05-25 Listed $79,900 SOMO
• 2018-07-06 Listed $79,900 SOMO
• 2005-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $417 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.