204 S Cottonwood Ave · Republic, MO 65738

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1985 0.26 ac lot $133/sqft · 25% below area Est $204k · 7% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Republic, perfectly positioned for you to add your own personal touches. Enjoy a great location, a huge yard, and the bonus of a converted one-car garage that offers extra space (non-heated and non-cooled) for hobbies, storage, or future possibilities. Conveniently close to local schools, parks, and shopping, this property has so much potential waiting for its next owner. Schedule your tour today.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Close to parks
• Close to shopping

Tags

• HUGE YARD
• CONVERTED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• CLOSE TO LOCAL SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Republic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,268
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -7.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
218 S Allen Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-3%)	2mo	$210,000	$151	74
418 S Teakwood Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,244 (-13%)	2mo	$250,000	$201	65
2321 E Lee St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	4mo	$235,000	$167	60
1962 E Foxridge Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-10%)	7mo	$245,000	$190	59
1604 E Lee St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+9%)	4mo	$245,000	$157	55
1714 E Lee St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-9%)	6mo	$209,900	$162	54
2327 E Lee St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-5%)	6mo	$249,500	$184	52
580 N Lynette Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-7%)	2mo	$219,900	$165	50
1228 E Ritter St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,631 (+14%)	5mo	$329,900	$202	49
1448 E Lee St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,611 (+13%)	5mo	$262,000	$163	47
115 S Redbud Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+8%)	7mo	$235,000	$152	44
538 N Basswood Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+13%)	6mo	$254,900	$157	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,258
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,531
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,358/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	43d	1	0.33mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	43d	1	0.44mi
1605 E Hines St Republic, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,060	$1.26	13d	10	0.76mi
625 Turner Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5	1609	$1,895	$1.18	13d	6	0.78mi
1740 E Hamilton St Republic, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$1,395	$1.26	43d	7	0.81mi
644 N Cox Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,595	$1.16	43d	1	0.84mi
810 N Oakwood Ave Republic, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1239	$924	$0.75	13d	4	0.96mi
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	13d	1	1.04mi
923 N Blake AVE Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	1.09mi
922 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	1.10mi
929 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	1.10mi
928 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	1.11mi
937 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	1.11mi
2488 Timber Oak St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1550	$1,895	$1.22	43d	1	1.16mi
1031 N Blake Ave Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	1.21mi
1090 N Northwood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,200	$0.91	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-09
   price $189,900 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Republic, perfectly positioned for you to add your own personal touches. Enjoy a great location, a huge yard, and the bonus of a converted one-car garage that offers extra space (non-heated and non-cooled) for hobbies, storage, or future possibilities. Conveniently close to local schools, parks, and shopping, this property has so much potential waiting for its next owner. Schedule your tour today.

2. 2025-12-10
   listed $195,000 Active 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Republic, perfectly positioned for you to add your own personal touches. Enjoy a great location, a huge yard, and the bonus of a converted one-car garage that offers extra space (non-heated and non-cooled) for hobbies, storage, or future possibilities. Conveniently close to local schools, parks, and shopping, this property has so much potential waiting for its next owner. Schedule your tour today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,358 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,842 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$484/yr (+$40/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,358
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$147
• After-tax cash flow: $2,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $189,900 SOMO
• 2025-12-10 Listed $195,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,358 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.