2695 Elsey Rd · Nanticoke, MD 21840

$99,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 305 Days on market

Built 1900 0.75 ac lot $50/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here's an incredible opportunity to build some equity just 1.5 blocks away from the Nanticoke Harbor! This four-bedroom two-bathroom home sits on . 75 acres, a few hundred feet off Nanticoke Rd. Highlights include hardwood floors, a large great room, a concrete block addition, historic charm, and an expansive lot, among others. The nearby harbor/marina offers a picnic area, beach/swimming area, fishing, and a public boat launch. Take a short drive to Roaring Point and enjoy the sand and the sun! Unleash your creativity and bring the home back to its original glory.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Picnic area
• Beach swimming area

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GREAT ROOM
• CONCRETE BLOCK ADDITION
• EXPANSIVE LOT
• PICNIC AREA
• BEACH SWIMMING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#471 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wicomico County Public Schools (urban): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #19 of 24 in MD (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Wicomico County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Wicomico County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.07%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,433
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -68.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20525 Nanticoke Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,951 (-1%)	13mo	$329,900	$169	70
20477 Nanticoke Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,939 (-2%)	20mo	$310,000	$160	66
20560 Nanticoke Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (+7%)	9mo	$275,000	$130	57
20538 Nanticoke Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (-15%)	18mo	$125,000	$74	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $52,512
• Equity at exit: $50,016

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $131,141
• Equity at exit: $81,463

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21840

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $539/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 305 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,500 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 288 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 286 DOM
16. 2025-10-01
    price $99,500 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Here's an incredible opportunity to build some equity just 1.5 blocks away from the Nanticoke Harbor! This four-bedroom two-bathroom home sits on . 75 acres, a few hundred feet off Nanticoke Rd. Highlights include hardwood floors, a large great room, a concrete block addition, historic charm, and an expansive lot, among others. The nearby harbor/marina offers a picnic area, beach/swimming area, fishing, and a public boat launch. Take a short drive to Roaring Point and enjoy the sand and the sun! Unleash your creativity and bring the home back to its original glory.

17. 2025-09-08
    price $104,900 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Here's an incredible opportunity to build some equity just 1.5 blocks away from the Nanticoke Harbor! This four-bedroom two-bathroom home sits on . 75 acres, a few hundred feet off Nanticoke Rd. Highlights include hardwood floors, a large great room, a concrete block addition, historic charm, and an expansive lot, among others. The nearby harbor/marina offers a picnic area, beach/swimming area, fishing, and a public boat launch. Take a short drive to Roaring Point and enjoy the sand and the sun! Unleash your creativity and bring the home back to its original glory.

18. 2025-08-17
    listed $120,000 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    Here's an incredible opportunity to build some equity just 1.5 blocks away from the Nanticoke Harbor! This four-bedroom two-bathroom home sits on . 75 acres, a few hundred feet off Nanticoke Rd. Highlights include hardwood floors, a large great room, a concrete block addition, historic charm, and an expansive lot, among others. The nearby harbor/marina offers a picnic area, beach/swimming area, fishing, and a public boat launch. Take a short drive to Roaring Point and enjoy the sand and the sun! Unleash your creativity and bring the home back to its original glory.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $539 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 50.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$539
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $5,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $5,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wicomico County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400690
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,745
• Composite: 18.87/100
• National rank: #8860
• State rank: #19 of 24 in MD

Livability — Nanticoke

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #26500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nanticoke, MD
• Population (ZIP): 573

Population outlook (Wicomico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,548 people
• By 2030: 111,783 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 118,139 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 123,641 · +13.9%
• By 2075: 139,784 · +28.8%
• By 2100: 145,334 · +33.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wicomico

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.5) · D 46.1% · R 51.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -5.8pp · 2024: -5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.5 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+6.9 2008: R+5.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.93%
• Current HPI: 151.2562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $99,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $104,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-17 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $539 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.