3822 Damian Dr · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$152,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 221 Days on market

Built 1988 5,003 sqft lot Est $160k · at est. $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a spacious CORNER LOT within the active 55+ community of Colony Hills, this 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,248 sq ft manufactured home offers a welcoming lifestyle where you own the land and enjoy access to fantastic amenities. The newly painted 2023 exterior, complete with landscaping, is complimented by 3 inviting outdoor spaces which can be used to expand your living space- an enclosed 13 x 9 front porch, an 9 x 10 open-air patio, and a 21 x 11 Florida room on the side that has real windows and ceramic tile floors. The Florida connects to an oversized laundry room and workshop! Inside, the spacious, light-filled living room features newer flooring, a sliding glass door to the fron

Key facts

• Florida room
• Own the land
• Fantastic amenities

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• FANTASTIC AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR SPACES
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-AIR PATIO
• FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Colony Hills HOA (annual fee $750; monthly equivalent $62.50); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, shuffleboard; Buyer approval required for association; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed with limits (max weight ~20 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Membrane roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built in or around 1 story (single-level)
• Exterior features: Covered enclosed porch; Front porch; Side porch; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Paved lot; Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $449 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $152k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.65%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3838 Chah Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$160,000	$128	96
3912 Damian Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	14mo	$160,000	$128	85
35042 Colony Hills Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	13mo	$170,000	$136	78
4100 Carefree Way	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,302 (+4%)	1mo	$139,500	$107	76
35139 Wagner Way	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	8mo	$169,900	$129	75
35122 Mcculloughs Leap	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-8%)	0mo	$161,000	$141	74
35026 Colony Hills Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,212 (-3%)	11mo	$152,000	$125	74
35043 Chancey Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	7mo	$196,000	$157	73
3819 Chah Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,395 (+12%)	16mo	$164,000	$118	64
35021 Mcculloughs Leap	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+8%)	4mo	$167,000	$124	63
35020 Colony Hills Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+15%)	9mo	$175,000	$122	51
35429 Chambers Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+1%)	15mo	$253,000	$201	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,388
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,980
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $773/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $449

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.35mi
34652 Blue Starling St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	5d	1	1.12mi
5019 Coopers Hawk Pl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,699	$1.17	10d	1	1.17mi
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	1.19mi
34747 Double Eagle Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1308	$1,650	$1.26	18d	1	1.27mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	1.37mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.40mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,000 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $152,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $152,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    status Active
15. 2026-05-05
    price $152,000
16. 2026-04-23
    historical
17. 2026-01-29
    price $158,000
18. 2026-01-13
    price $164,000
19. 2025-10-28
    listed $169,900 Active
20. 2001-06-14
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 63.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$773
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $3,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$744
• After-tax cash flow: $4,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+145.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $152,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $164,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $773 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.