1890 Lynx Dr · White Mountain Lake, AZ 85901

$165,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 390 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1989 2,613 sqft lot $423/sqft · 94% above area Est $165k · at est. $242/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious park model features lots of windows, a wood burning stove, a screened-in porch and is just a few steps from the heated pool/spa and activities in the common buildings. This home was built and designed for year round living. The extra 1/2 bath next to the bedroom is a plus! The carport has an attached utility room with a washer/dryer and extra storage space. Own your land at Juniper Ridge Resort, a 55 Plus, Gated Community in the cool White Mountains of Show Low, AZ. Enjoy the private 18 hole golf course, pickle ball courts, arts & crafts, planned activities, concerts, dances and MORE!

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Utility room
• Pickle ball courts

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• HEATED POOL
• UTILITY ROOM
• PRIVATE GOLF COURSE
• PICKLE BALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SP; Directions: From Show Low, north on Hwy 77 ~7 miles to White Mountain Lake Rd, east ~3 miles to entrance of Juniper Ridge Resort on the right; Unit: Lot 110
• HOA & community: HOA with quarterly dues ($726); Clubhouse; Exercise facility; Laundry facility; Pool and spa; Tennis court; Property owner association; Mandatory HOA; Rental restrictions; 55+ community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1); Parking slab
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Power available; APS electric service; Individual electric meter
• Home design: Park model / RV; Manufactured construction; One story; Pitched roof; Park model (mobile home); Subdivision: Juniper Ridge Phase 1; Lot: 0.06 acre; Not lease land; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Other foundation; Pitched roof; Built by Fuqua
• Exterior features: Gated community; Landscaped lot; Gutters and downspouts; Awning(s); Screened porch; Blinds, screens, and skylight(s); Arizona room; Corners of property marked; Private adjoining property; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen/dining room combo
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Full bath with shower
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Electric forced air heating; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Smoke detector; Vaulted ceiling; Fireplace (woodstove); Partially furnished; Carpet and tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#141 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 895 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $121,178 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,086
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -0.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8211 Lake Shore Dr	0.60mi	1/1.0	375 (-4%)	1mo	$132,000	$352	63
8248 Bogie Loop	0.37mi	1/1.0	430 (+10%)	9mo	$162,900	$379	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-42,463
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-57,022
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 895
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$242
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,556

Max offer price $121,178

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-201	+0% $-248	+5% $-295	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-297	+0% $-248	+5% $-199	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-206	base $-248	+0.5pp $-291	+1.0pp $-334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $242 · $2,904/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $165,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-05-06
    listed $165,000 Active 612-char remark
12. 2025-05-29
    price $165,000
13. 2024-09-03
    historical
14. 2024-07-04
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 70.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥90°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − HOA: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$5,891
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — White Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #16914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: White Mountain Lake, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-44.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $165,000 WMMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $165,000 WMMLS
• 2024-09-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $299,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $641 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.