37565 Webb Rd · Watson, LA 70706

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2008 1.01 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale ! 4 bedroom fixer upper in Watson on 1 acre in flood zone x. Sale is subject to lienholder approval. Property is being sold as-is, with no repairs to be made by seller. Buyer is responsible for all inspections and due diligence. Closing timeline may be extended due to short sale approval process.

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Lot roughly 1.01 acres (approx. 215 x 205); Pillar/post/pier foundation

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.8% in Watson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 342 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.94%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,720
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37235 Twin Oaks Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-11%)	7mo	$340,000	$200	55
38277 Little Woods Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-12%)	22mo	$300,000	$180	22
38175 Shelby Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-14%)	23mo	$265,000	$161	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $91
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $31,504
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,805/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,265

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $425	+0% $383	+5% $341	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $314	+0% $383	+5% $452	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $421	base $383	+0.5pp $344	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10552 Tumbleweed Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,750	$1.20	44d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 308-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $150,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,805 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,805 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,805
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$557
• After-tax cash flow: $4,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-03 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $150,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $150,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $174,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-12 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2015-12-27 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2015-10-03 Price Changed $175,000 GBRMLS
• 2015-07-30 Listed $180,000 GBRMLS
• 2015-07-28 Listed $175,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-06-18 Listed $165,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2014-06-18 Listed $165,000 GBRMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,805 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.