5979 Triumph Oaks Trl · Houston, TX 77365

$270,540

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 $180/sqft · 46% above area Est $186k · 46% over $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Royal Pines, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $196,942 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,544
• List price: $270,540
• Delta: 45.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,463
• Equity at exit: $40,338

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-66,357
• Equity at exit: $23,391

Cash invested: $75,751 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,419
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $251,437

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,635
• Closing costs: $8,116
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3206 Abbey Field Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,623	$1.07	43d	1	0.46mi
4432 Bethel Colony Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,635	$1.39	20d	1	0.51mi
4620 Peralta Heights Way Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	43d	1	0.59mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,134	$1.19	43d	1	0.67mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,999	$1.11	1d	1	0.67mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	19d	1	1.14mi
23227 Albert Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Royal Pines, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $270,540 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Royal Pines, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

3. 2026-04-27
   price $214,990 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Royal Pines, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

4. 2026-04-22
   price $224,990 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Royal Pines, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

5. 2026-04-21
   listed $270,540 Active 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH MODERN OPEN CONCEPT LIVING Introducing the Athena floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,499 square feet of comfortable living space. The open concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an easy flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The private primary suite is tucked away for added privacy and includes a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom, and a fully fenced backyard completes this well designed home in Royal Pines, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,951 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,057/yr (+$338/mo · 453.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,154
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$1,353
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$7,870
• Taxable loss: −$6,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,468
• After-tax cash flow: $170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $270,540 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $270,540 HARMLS