Old Glory Plan · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$330,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,125 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two story plan has room to spare! With flexible Zoom room downstairs, 3 bedrooms and a convertible loft upstairs, there is space for the whole family! Finish it off with a large Great Room - perfect for entertaining - and you've got a home built to please!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 511 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 592 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,648 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-73,287
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-85,517
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 592
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,950/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,887

Max offer price $281,955

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-218	+0% $-332	+5% $-446	+10% $-560
Rent	-10% $-527	-5% $-429	+0% $-332	+5% $-235	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-166	-0.5pp $-248	base $-332	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3652 Springhaven Loop Las Cruces, NM	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,500	$1.18	14d	1	1.06mi
7013 Silver Spur St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	2330	$2,200	$0.94	22d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 511 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 510 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 509 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 507 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 506 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 504 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 503 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 502 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 501 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 496 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 495 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $330,000 Active 493 DOM
15. 2025-01-23
    listed $330,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    This two story plan has room to spare! With flexible Zoom room downstairs, 3 bedrooms and a convertible loft upstairs, there is space for the whole family! Finish it off with a large Great Room - perfect for entertaining - and you've got a home built to please!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,950
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$9,823
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-01-23 Listed $330,000 Zillow