Lancia's Berkley I Plan · New Haven, IN 46774

$232,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Excellent condition $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Berkley I has a Great Room that is open to the Nook and Kitchen with the Kitchen's sink and breakfast bar facing the Great Room. All Bedrooms upstairs and Laundry Room upstairs. 9x9 Loft upstairs perfect for a study or play area. Owner Suite Bedroom has a large walk-in closet and dual sinks in attached Bathroom. Garage has 6x7 bump in back for storage. A full basement is available.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 443 days

🏗️ New construction. The $232,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $275,508.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#149 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• East Allen County Schools (suburban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #122 of 301 in IN (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Intermediate School (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #727 of 994 statewide, top 73%, 589 students, 64% FRL); New Haven Jr/Sr High School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #263 of 369 statewide, top 72%, 1,494 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 43% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 304 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,961 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,508
• List price: $232,000
• Delta: -15.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10247 Erwin Ln	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,713 (-3%)	3mo	$290,000	$169	83
3559 Canal Square Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,832 (+4%)	2mo	$264,700	$144	79
3561 Canal Square Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,832 (+4%)	2mo	$264,700	$144	79
10585 Slate Run	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,812 (+2%)	3mo	$255,000	$141	77
3832 Sun Stone Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (+6%)	2mo	$300,000	$160	76
9678 Pawnee Way	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,741 (-2%)	2mo	$201,412	$116	66
4146 Centerstone Pkwy	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,956 (+11%)	1mo	$349,500	$179	66
9518 Sweetwater Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,679 (-5%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	63
4369 Fenwick Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	1,684 (-5%)	2mo	$269,000	$160	58
1225 Lawn Ave	0.59mi	4/1.5	1,844 (+4%)	4mo	$180,000	$98	58
1720 Douglas Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,978 (+12%)	4mo	$281,000	$142	52
9612 Moeller Rd	0.44mi	4/1.5	2,006 (+14%)	2mo	$279,900	$140	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,894
• Equity at exit: $41,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-82,455
• Equity at exit: $23,821

Cash invested: $77,142 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 45 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.7 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $257,450 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 443 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46774

• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,133/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $229,394

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-223	+0% $-319	+5% $-414	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-480	-5% $-399	+0% $-319	+5% $-238	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-180	-0.5pp $-249	base $-319	+0.5pp $-390	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,877
• Closing costs: $8,265
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3667 Victoria Lakes Ct New Haven, IN	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,595	$1.22	0d	1	0.06mi
3589 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1437	$1,495	$1.04	0d	1	0.12mi
3599 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$2,295	$1.25	162d	1	0.16mi
3559 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	46d	1	0.20mi
3565 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,895	$1.03	46d	1	0.20mi
3561 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	18d	1	0.20mi
3556 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.5	1832	$1,990	$1.09	16d	1	0.20mi
3591 Canal Square Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	1.5	1467	$1,695	$1.16	184d	1	0.20mi
10390 Silver Rock Chase New Haven, IN	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	184d	1	0.33mi
3612 Kirklynn Dr New Haven, IN	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,950	$1.51	9d	1	0.43mi
4309 Silver Birch Cv New Haven, IN	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,875	$1.22	0d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $232,000 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $232,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $232,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $232,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $232,000 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $232,000 Active 437 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $232,000 Active 436 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $232,000 Active 435 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $232,000 Active 434 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $232,000 Active 433 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $232,000 Active 432 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $232,000 Active 431 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $232,000 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $232,000 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $232,000 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $232,000 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $232,000 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $232,000 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $232,000 Active 424 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $232,000 Active 423 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $232,000 Active 422 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $232,000 Active 421 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $232,000 Active 420 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $232,000 Active 419 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $232,000 Active 418 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $232,000 Active 417 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $232,000 Active 416 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $232,000 Active 415 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $232,000 Active 414 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $232,000 Active 413 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $232,000 Active 412 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $232,000 Active 411 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $232,000 Active 410 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $232,000 Active 409 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $232,000 Active 408 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $232,000 Active 407 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $232,000 Active 406 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $232,000 Active 405 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $232,000 Active 404 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $232,000 Active 403 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $232,000 Active 402 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $232,000 Active 401 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $232,000 Active 400 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $232,000 Active 399 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $232,000 Active 398 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $232,000 Active 397 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $232,000 Active 396 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $232,000 Active 395 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $232,000 Active 394 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $232,000 Active 392 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,433
• − Property taxes: −$4,133
• − Insurance: −$1,378
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$8,015
• Taxable loss: −$8,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,090
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Upgrading to more durable and visually appealing flooring can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart security system — A smart security system can increase both resale and rental value by providing peace of mind and added safety features. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary New Haven Primary School High New Haven Jr/sr High School F IN #263/369 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Allen County Schools
• NCES district ID: 1802850
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,524
• Composite: 35.75/100
• National rank: #4849
• State rank: #122 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #7499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, IN
• County: Allen · 394,020 people
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 17,066
• Household income: $70,758
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.27%
• Current HPI: 241.5333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $227,600 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $226,000 Zillow