5201 W Camelback Rd Unit G264 · Phoenix, AZ 85031

$17,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 580 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $17k · at est. ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated cozy 1 bedroom 1 bathroom home is located within this wonderful 55+ community that has it all! Enjoy 2 heated pools, a library, a club house and a billiards room a gym and much more!

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Billiards room
• Club house

Tags

• HEATED POOLS
• LIBRARY
• CLUB HOUSE
• BILLIARDS ROOM
• GYM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size reported by owner
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease amount $955 per month; Association covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenance; Community pool, community spa (heated), tennis and pickleball courts, fitness center, community media room, community laundry, biking/walking paths, near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: One covered parking space; One open parking space; One carport space; Separate storage area
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Heated spa; Shed(s); East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Non-laminate counters; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: One possible bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (total 1)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $815 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 62.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,925 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 62.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 199.49%
• DSCR: 9.88
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $17,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5201 W Camelback Rd Unit F127	0.12mi	2/1.5 (+1)	660 (+14%)	22mo	$20,000	$30	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.03×
• Total profit: $49,170
• Equity at exit: $2,609

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.48×
• Total profit: $110,135
• Equity at exit: $1,513

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85031

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $815

Break-even live

Break-even rent $153

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5201 W Camelback Rd Lot FC200 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	672	$1,400	$2.08	1d	1	0.03mi
5038 N 55th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	404	$1,200	$2.97	1d	22	0.49mi
5190 N 55th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	708	$945	$1.33	1d	15	0.53mi
5039 N 57th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,005	$1.26	1d	15	0.60mi
4337 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	675	$1,135	$1.68	1d	1	0.61mi
4337 N 53rd Ln Unit A1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	675	$1,185	$1.76	1d	1	0.62mi
5631 W Colter St Glendale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,049	$1.19	1d	5	0.65mi
5045 N 58th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,099	$1.34	1d	1	0.73mi
3810 N Maryvale Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$790	$0.98	1d	2	1.09mi
5755 N 59th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	632	$1,167	$1.85	17d	1	1.15mi
4441 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$1,190	$2.16	1d	21	1.36mi
4413 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	600	$1,150	$1.92	1d	1	1.39mi
5750 N 59th Ave Unit 1A Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$854	$1.71	1d	1	1.39mi
5750 N 59th Ave Unit 1B Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$984	$1.51	1d	1	1.39mi
4030 N 44th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	525	$1,195	$2.28	1d	16	1.40mi
5740 N 59th Ave Unit 1A Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	545	$876	$1.61	1d	1	1.40mi
5740 N 59th Ave Unit 1B Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	676	$886	$1.31	1d	1	1.40mi
4404 W Bethany Home Rd Glendale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,149	$1.73	1d	4	1.48mi
6105 N 59th Ave Glendale, AZ	1.0	1.0	475	$899	$1.89	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,500 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,500 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,500 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,500 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,500 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $17,500 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $17,500 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $17,500 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $17,500
16. 2026-04-10
    price $19,990
17. 2026-03-27
    price $25,000
18. 2026-03-14
    listed $29,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 4 d/yr ≥112°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $10,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,423
• After-tax cash flow: $7,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,191
• Household income: $70,412
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 822.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 19% White 13% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.76%
• Current HPI: 456.0053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.09%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-41.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $17,500 ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $19,990 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $25,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $29,990 ARMLS