22439 Cr 200b · Lawtey, FL 32058

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a spacious 0.8-acre lot on a paved road. This recently subdivided parcel offers plenty of potential for investors, builders, or buyers looking to create something from the ground up. The property includes a small home in need of renovation, making it an ideal project for those ready to bring new life to an existing structure or start fresh. A recent survey is available for added peace of mind. The adjacent lot features city water, septic, and power already in place, offering additional possibilities for expansion or a multi-lot investment opportunity. Conveniently located with easy access to major roadways and situated across from a correctional facility.

Key facts

• Paved road
• Septic
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• PAVED ROAD
• RECENTLY SUBDIVIDED PARCEL
• RECENT SURVEY
• CITY WATER
• SEPTIC

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available; Sewer available; Cable available; Sewer connection listed as unknown
• Home design: Single Family Residence
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Other detached or additional structures on the property; Property currently used for other purposes (not specified)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Cooling present (type listed as other)
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $72k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $63k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $63k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#791 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bradford (town): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #57 of 73 in FL (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bradford Middle School (math 45% / reading 36%, grade F, #360 of 571 statewide, top 64%, 660 students, 70% FRL); Bradford High School (math 33% / reading 38%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 790 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 93 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bradford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,088 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $40,633
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $124,135
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32058

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$132
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $72,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-30	-5% $-60	+0% $-89	+5% $-118	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-114	+0% $-89	+5% $-64	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-67	base $-89	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1570 NE 216th St Unit 1 Lawtey, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$650	$0.71	20d	1	1.39mi
1570 NE 216th St Unit 2 Lawtey, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$600	$1.09	13d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$606
• − Management: −$606
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$2,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$618
• After-tax cash flow: $-450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bradford
• NCES district ID: 1200120
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,661
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4840
• State rank: #57 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lawtey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #791
• US rank: #18128

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawtey, FL
• Population (ZIP): 4,863

Population outlook (Bradford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,999 people
• By 2030: 23,895 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 21,329 · -14.7%
• By 2050: 18,681 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 13,557 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 9,228 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.1% · R 78.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.3pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+42.1 2008: R+40.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.32%
• Current HPI: 317.5243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $85,000 realMLS