2004 Avondale Ave · Waco, TX 76707

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1939 6,926 sqft lot $94/sqft · 30% below area Est $171k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath property with strong potential for rental income or resale. Functional floor plan with spacious living areas, generous bedroom sizes, and two full baths. Property sits on a manageable lot with room for improvements or value-add upgrades. Ideal for buy-and-hold investors or fix-and-flip strategies. Convenient location near schools, shopping, and major roadways. Sold as-is — bring your vision and unlock the upside.

Key facts

• Manageable lot
• 6,926 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,553/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 704% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.94%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,263
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -29.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1123 N 14th St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,272 (-1%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	69
1304 N 22nd	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,383 (+8%)	0mo	$110,000	$80	69
1521 Homan Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-2%)	4mo	$169,900	$135	67
2015 Gorman Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+3%)	0mo	$140,000	$106	61
2319 Parrot	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-10%)	0mo	$75,000	$65	60
2110 Gorman Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-2%)	4mo	$214,999	$172	58
2805 Parrott Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-3%)	3mo	$190,000	$154	57
2620 Lasker Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-6%)	4mo	$220,000	$183	52
912 N 22nd St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,168 (-9%)	2mo	$199,999	$171	50
1122 N 14th St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,472 (+15%)	1mo	$40,000	$27	46
2710 Cumberland Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$197	44
1217 Frost Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-15%)	6mo	$190,000	$175	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-946
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $15,562
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76707

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,563/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,130

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1815 Seneca Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,650	$1.12	21d	1	0.08mi
1821 Algonquin St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	930	$1,150	$1.24	43d	1	0.12mi
1825 Cumberland Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,325	$0.95	13d	1	0.26mi
1920 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1216	$1,200	$0.99	43d	1	0.30mi
2000 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.5	1450	$1,800	$1.24	43d	1	0.31mi
1818 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1112	$1,625	$1.46	21d	1	0.31mi
1400 N 23rd St Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,575	$0.95	13d	1	0.34mi
1511 Maple Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,450	$0.98	43d	1	0.38mi
2001 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1628	$1,100	$0.68	43d	1	0.39mi
2511 Parrott Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	43d	1	0.43mi
1000 N 19th St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1800	$2,050	$1.14	21d	1	0.48mi
1600 N 11th St Unit A Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,750	$1.44	43d	1	0.61mi
2621 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,175	$1.06	21d	1	0.62mi
1901 N 28th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	21d	1	0.65mi
2714 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	979	$1,300	$1.33	43d	1	0.67mi
1920 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1519	$1,200	$0.79	21d	1	0.69mi
1920 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1519	$1,200	$0.79	43d	1	0.69mi
2705 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,599	$1.56	43d	1	0.69mi
2505 Proctor Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$1,550	$0.98	21d	1	0.72mi
2116 Morrow Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,650	$0.97	21d	1	0.73mi
2632 Colonial Ave Unit B Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,050	$1.17	21d	1	0.74mi
2121 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	13d	1	0.74mi
1110 N 11th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,495	$1.28	21d	1	0.75mi
2724 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,100	$0.98	21d	1	0.75mi
1606 N 9th St Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1392	$1,525	$1.10	21d	1	0.75mi
1104 N 11th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,650	$1.34	21d	1	0.76mi
3007 Parrott Ave Unit 1 Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,650	$1.13	21d	1	0.78mi
712 Proctor Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1184	$1,450	$1.22	21d	1	0.80mi
2601 Herring Ave Unit 1 Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	989	$1,295	$1.31	43d	1	0.82mi
2504 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,475	$1.43	21d	1	0.82mi
716 N 13th St Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1349	$1,675	$1.24	21d	1	0.83mi
2704 Herring Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1286	$1,750	$1.36	21d	1	0.84mi
615 N 23rd St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	21d	1	0.85mi
804 N 11th St Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,200	$1.43	21d	1	0.87mi
608 N 23rd St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1361	$1,695	$1.25	21d	1	0.88mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	0.91mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.91mi
1621 Alexander Ave Unit A Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,695	$1.21	21d	1	0.91mi
3125 Ethel Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,900	$1.08	21d	1	0.95mi
415 N 23rd St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	21d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 167 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 166 DOM
17. 2025-12-15
    listed $120,000 Active 446-char remark

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    Solid 3-bedroom, 2-bath property with strong potential for rental income or resale. Functional floor plan with spacious living areas, generous bedroom sizes, and two full baths. Property sits on a manageable lot with room for improvements or value-add upgrades. Ideal for buy-and-hold investors or fix-and-flip strategies. Convenient location near schools, shopping, and major roadways. Sold as-is — bring your vision and unlock the upside.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,563 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,563 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,563
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$548
• After-tax cash flow: $3,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,879
• Household income: $40,443
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 704.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 32% Two or more races 26% White 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.95%
• Current HPI: 239.639
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $120,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,563 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.