4546 N Tumbleweed Trl · Hernando, FL 34442

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1971 0.25 ac lot Est $116k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely maintained older Mobile home, same owner since early 80 this includes 3 sheds; one of the Sheds has laundry with Bath, Shower, LP Heater, and Electric. Other shed under carport and Nice Newer shed out back for Mowers or would make a nice Gardeners shed. Will be ready for immediate Occupancy after 09/17/2006

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Paved and unpaved parking areas; Total of 1 parking space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Level, rectangular lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Single-story layout
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning
• Interior features: Water heater; Window/wall cooling unit(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 5.9% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hernando Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 813 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 447 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $100k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.51%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,736
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3277 E Lariat Loop	0.13mi	2/2.0	784 (+0%)	10mo	$113,900	$145	81
4794 N Apache Trl	0.34mi	2/1.0	762 (-3%)	1mo	$85,000	$112	79
2975 E Blackberry Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	810 (+4%)	1mo	$145,000	$179	79
4662 N Custer Ter	0.17mi	2/2.0	812 (+4%)	14mo	$120,000	$148	70
4361 N Desertsand Ter	0.22mi	2/1.5	784 (+0%)	23mo	$115,000	$147	68
4737 N Apache Trl	0.40mi	2/1.0	784 (+0%)	20mo	$138,000	$176	64
3513 E Buffalo Ln	0.34mi	2/1.0	672 (-14%)	0mo	$80,000	$119	60
5247 N Redwood Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	673 (-14%)	7mo	$108,000	$160	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $17,248
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $58,083
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $820

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $554	+0% $525	+5% $497	+10% $469
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $467	+0% $525	+5% $584	+10% $643
Rate	-1.0pp $576	-0.5pp $551	base $525	+0.5pp $499	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $100,000 Active
18. 2006-09-12
    soldstatus $28,000 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Nicely maintained older Mobile home, same owner since early 80 this includes 3 sheds; one of the Sheds has laundry with Bath, Shower, LP Heater, and Electric. Other shed under carport and Nice Newer shed out back for Mowers or would make a nice Gardeners shed. Will be ready for immediate Occupancy after 09/17/2006

19. 2006-08-04
    listed $28,084 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Nicely maintained older Mobile home, same owner since early 80 this includes 3 sheds; one of the Sheds has laundry with Bath, Shower, LP Heater, and Electric. Other shed under carport and Nice Newer shed out back for Mowers or would make a nice Gardeners shed. Will be ready for immediate Occupancy after 09/17/2006

20. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus $18,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,426
• − Management: −$1,426
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,194
• After-tax cash flow: $5,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+446.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $100,000 RACC
• 2006-09-12 Sold (MLS) $28,000 RACC
• 2006-08-04 Listed $28,084 RACC
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $982 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.