601 Dave Creek Pkwy #73 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$69,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,066 sqft · Condo public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1980 $65/sqft · 31% below area Est $100k · 31% under $338/mo HOA · 17% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow, this fully remodeled Chelsea condo is stunning! Beautiful new countertops, brand new appliances, new HVAC system, fresh paint, new fixtures, baseboards, and carpet upstairs. Everything’s move-in ready. Just steps from the cool pool, perfect for bringing your boat or jet ski to enjoy resort living at Fairfield Bay. You couldn’t find a condo this nice anywhere for this price. It’s a crazy good deal!

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Fresh paint
• Community pool

Tags

• REMODELED CONDO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• FRESH PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $150 of equity ($481 loan paydown + $-331 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $70k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $68,457 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.45%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,412
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -25.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.73mi	2/1.5	1,033 (-3%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $48,740
• Equity at exit: $18,541

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $117,783
• Equity at exit: $21,017

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$338
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $964

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $338 · $4,056/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $69,500 Under Contract 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,500 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,500 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,500 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,500 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,500 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,500 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    price $69,500 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Wow, this fully remodeled Chelsea condo is stunning! Beautiful new countertops, brand new appliances, new HVAC system, fresh paint, new fixtures, baseboards, and carpet upstairs. Everything’s move-in ready. Just steps from the cool pool, perfect for bringing your boat or jet ski to enjoy resort living at Fairfield Bay. You couldn’t find a condo this nice anywhere for this price. It’s a crazy good deal!

14. 2026-05-16
    listed $74,900 New Listing 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Wow, this fully remodeled Chelsea condo is stunning! Beautiful new countertops, brand new appliances, new HVAC system, fresh paint, new fixtures, baseboards, and carpet upstairs. Everything’s move-in ready. Just steps from the cool pool, perfect for bringing your boat or jet ski to enjoy resort living at Fairfield Bay. You couldn’t find a condo this nice anywhere for this price. It’s a crazy good deal!

15. 2026-05-15
    historical
16. 2026-01-05
    listed $74,900 New Listing
17. 2026-01-05
    historical
18. 2025-10-10
    price $74,900
19. 2025-09-19
    price $78,900
20. 2025-08-24
    price $79,900
21. 2025-07-22
    listed $84,500 New Listing
22. 2021-11-09
    soldstatus $45,000 Sold
23. 2021-10-21
    historical Take Backups
24. 2021-09-15
    status Under Contract
25. 2021-09-14
    listed $45,000 New Listing
26. 2021-06-09
    historical
27. 2021-06-06
    historical Take Backups
28. 2021-05-23
    historical
29. 2021-05-17
    listed $49,900 New Listing
30. 2016-05-13
    soldstatus $29,900 Sold
31. 2016-05-12
    soldstatus $29,900
32. 2016-05-03
    status Under Contract
33. 2016-04-19
    status Back on Market
34. 2016-01-29
    status Under Contract
35. 2016-01-26
    listed $29,900 New Listing
36. 2015-08-03
    soldstatus $24,500 Sold
37. 2015-07-25
    status Under Contract
38. 2015-06-03
    listed $25,900 Active
39. 2014-08-27
    historical
40. 2013-08-26
    listed $29,900
41. 2000-08-05
    soldstatus $26,030

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$80/yr (+$7/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$4,056
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $9,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $7,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+167.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $69,500 CARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $74,900 CARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $74,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $74,900 CARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $78,900 CARMLS
• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $79,900 CARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $84,500 CARMLS
• 2021-11-09 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CARMLS
• 2021-10-21 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-09-14 Listed $45,000 CARMLS
• 2021-06-09 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-06-06 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2021-05-23 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2021-05-17 Listed $49,900 CARMLS
• 2016-05-13 Sold (MLS) $29,900 CARMLS
• 2016-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $29,900 Public Records
• 2016-05-03 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-04-19 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2016-01-29 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-01-26 Listed $29,900 CARMLS
• 2015-08-03 Sold (MLS) $24,500 CARMLS
• 2015-07-25 Pending — CARMLS
• 2015-06-03 Listed $25,900 CARMLS
• 2014-08-27 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2013-08-26 Listed $29,900 CARMLS
• 2000-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $26,030 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $365 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.