Hickory Plan · Zachary, LA 70791

$236,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 452 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find your space in our Hickory floorplan, a new home in Miraval, a new home community in Zachary, Louisiana. Inside this 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you'll find 1,506 square feet of enjoyable living. Once you walk into this home, you'll see two bedrooms along with the guest bathroom. Walking down the foyer, you'll see another bedroom down a short hallway, that houses the HVAC system and the linen closet on the other side. You'll then reach the open concept living space, starting with the kitchen. The kitchen offers shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets in the kitchens. The chef in your family will also enjoy the stainless-steel Frigidaire appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, single basin undermount sink. and 3 cm granite throughout. The kitchen also houses a large corner pantry, and the separate laundry room is located on the other side, creating easy access to everything. The dining room is adjacent to the kitchen, and the living room is situated nearby. This smart layout ensures that anyone in either space can always be part of the action, regardless of their location. Each bedroom is equipped with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a space for entertainment, storage, hosting guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can count on feeling comfortable and content. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the home and has its own en suite.

Key facts

• Miraval community
• Hickory floorplan
• Garage

Tags

• HICKORY FLOORPLAN
• MIRAVAL COMMUNITY
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• GOOSENECK PULLDOWN FAUCETS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $236,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,635.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#64 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zachary Community School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 98 in LA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rollins Place Elementary (847 students, 60% FRL); Northwestern Middle School (math 41% / reading 68%, grade B-, #17 of 218 statewide, top 8%, 912 students, 56% FRL); Zachary High School (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #15 of 265 statewide, top 6%, 1,765 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 38% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 864 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 452 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,279 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 452 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,635
• List price: $236,900
• Delta: -6.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15818 Garrigue Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,555 (+4%)	1mo	$248,900	$160	84
15839 Garrigue Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,555 (+4%)	0mo	$253,900	$163	84
517 Miraval Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,555 (+4%)	1mo	$249,900	$161	82
15822 Garrigue Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,543 (+3%)	2mo	$253,900	$165	80
15514 Alfio Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,581 (+5%)	1mo	$250,900	$159	75
15508 Alfio Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (+3%)	1mo	$259,900	$168	73
937 Ryan Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (+3%)	2mo	$259,900	$168	72
972 Ryan Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,543 (+3%)	2mo	$259,900	$168	70
456 Miraval Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-10%)	3mo	$234,900	$175	68
15538 Alfio Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,386 (-8%)	0mo	$234,900	$169	67
529 Miraval Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,343 (-10%)	1mo	$243,815	$182	67
15515 Rocco Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,658 (+10%)	2mo	$264,900	$160	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-49,015
• Equity at exit: $37,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,740
• Equity at exit: $21,930

Cash invested: $71,018 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.1 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,900 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 31 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70791

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 864
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,330
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,805/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,219

Max offer price $230,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-75	+0% $-163	+5% $-250	+10% $-338
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-242	+0% $-163	+5% $-83	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-98	base $-163	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,409
• Closing costs: $7,609
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1641 Groom Rd Baker, LA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	107d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $236,900 Active 452 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $236,900 Active 451 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $236,900 Active 450 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $236,900 Active 449 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $236,900 Active 448 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $236,900 Active 446 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $236,900 Active 445 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $236,900 Active 444 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $236,900 Active 443 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $236,900 Active 442 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $236,900 Active 441 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $236,900 Active 440 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $236,900 Active 439 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $236,900 Active 438 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $236,900 Active 437 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $236,900 Active 436 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $236,900 Active 435 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $236,900 Active 434 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $236,900 Active 433 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $236,900 Active 432 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $236,900 Active 431 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $236,900 Active 430 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $236,900 Active 429 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $236,900 Active 428 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $236,900 Active 427 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $236,900 Active 426 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $236,900 Active 425 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $236,900 Active 424 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $236,900 Active 423 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $236,900 Active 422 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $236,900 Active 421 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $236,900 Active 420 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $236,900 Active 419 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $236,900 Active 418 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $236,900 Active 417 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $236,900 Active 416 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $236,900 Active 415 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $236,900 Active 414 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $236,900 Active 413 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $236,900 Active 412 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $236,900 Active 411 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $236,900 Active 410 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $236,900 Active 408 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $236,900 Active 407 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $236,900 Active 406 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $236,900 Active 405 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $236,900 Active 404 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $236,900 Active 403 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $236,900 Active 402 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $236,900 Active 401 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,208
• − Property taxes: −$3,805
• − Insurance: −$1,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$7,378
• Taxable loss: −$6,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and painting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Painting — Refreshing the exterior and interior paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Zachary Elementary School C LA #100/646 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Northwestern Middle School B- LA #17/218 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Zachary High School B- LA #15/265 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Zachary Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2200039
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -28.00%
• Median HH income: $68,531
• Composite: 46.99/100
• National rank: #2349
• State rank: #8 of 98 in LA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Zachary

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #8274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: East Baton Rouge Parish · 464,810 people
• City population: 30,385
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 30,385
• Household income: $78,263
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (East Baton Rouge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 464,810 people
• By 2030: 472,137 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 480,243 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 484,422 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 492,069 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 476,347 · +2.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · East Baton Rouge

• 2024 margin: D (+11.1) · D 54.5% · R 43.4% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+11.1 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+9.2 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 170.2143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $236,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $234,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $232,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-13 Listed $239,900 Zillow