434 Pierce St · Gary, IN 46402

$40,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1918 5,619 sqft lot $42/sqft · at area comps Est $39k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.4/10.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor/rehab opportunity at 434 Pierce St, Gary, IN 46402. Classic raised ranch bungalow with approx. 945-954 sq ft, not including basement, ready for the next phase of renovation. Interior shows active rehab progress including open framing, and drywall work started. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Open framing
• 5,619 sq ft lot
• Built 1918

Tags

• RAISED RANCH BUNGALOW
• ACTIVE REHAB PROGRESS
• OPEN FRAMING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $904 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.4% vs local median 9.1% in Gary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,537/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $37,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.85%
• DSCR: 5.31
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $38,720
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: 3.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Lincoln St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	889 (-6%)	2mo	$33,900	$38	71
1009 W 2nd Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	892 (-6%)	8mo	$179,000	$201	62
271 Van Buren St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	925 (-2%)	15mo	$108,000	$117	58
668 Harrison St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (+7%)	10mo	$40,000	$40	58
353 Madison St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	850 (-10%)	8mo	$40,000	$47	44
231 Cleveland St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,015 (+7%)	17mo	$60,000	$59	42
407 Mckinley St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,047 (+11%)	16mo	$115,140	$110	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $51,136
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.61×
• Total profit: $118,842
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46402

• Home prices YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,537 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,011/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $927	-5% $915	+0% $904	+5% $893	+10% $881
Rent	-10% $782	-5% $843	+0% $904	+5% $965	+10% $1,025
Rate	-1.0pp $924	-0.5pp $914	base $904	+0.5pp $894	+1.0pp $883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
411 Pierce St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	874	$1,395	$1.60	22d	1	0.03mi
317 Garfield St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	936	$1,495	$1.60	44d	1	0.39mi
501 Madison St Gary, IN	1.0–4.0	1.0	883	$1,580	$1.79	2d	11	0.54mi
2306 W 5th Ave Gary, IN	2.0–3.0	1.0	937	$1,299	$1.39	2d	2	0.72mi
2306 W 5th Ave Apt 3 Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,299	$1.27	2d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-11
   price $40,000 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Investor/rehab opportunity at 434 Pierce St, Gary, IN 46402. Classic raised ranch bungalow with approx. 945-954 sq ft, not including basement, ready for the next phase of renovation. Interior shows active rehab progress including open framing, and drywall work started. Sold AS-IS.

2. 2026-03-02
   listed $45,000 Active 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Investor/rehab opportunity at 434 Pierce St, Gary, IN 46402. Classic raised ranch bungalow with approx. 945-954 sq ft, not including basement, ready for the next phase of renovation. Interior shows active rehab progress including open framing, and drywall work started. Sold AS-IS.

3. 2009-04-22
   historical
4. 2008-07-23
   historical
5. 2008-07-23
   listed $8,000
6. 2008-04-22
   listed $9,900
7. 2006-01-09
   listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,011
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,476
• − Management: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $10,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,612
• After-tax cash flow: $8,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 5,836
• Household income: $33,529
• Rent vs Own: 56.6% rent · 43.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 336.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% Two or more races 5% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Current HPI: 250.2464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+166.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $40,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $45,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-22 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Listed $8,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-22 Listed $9,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-09 Listed $15,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-14.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,011 · -30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.