2709 21st Ave N · Texas City, TX 77590

$159,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,457 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 333 Days on market

Built 1978 6,899 sqft lot $110/sqft · 31% below area Est $233k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sweet home in a very good Location. It is a safe and quiet neighborhood. The house was recently remodelled and totally repainted both interior and exterior. It is on a conner lot with a large fenced backyard and a beautiful covered back porch for you to enjoy your beautiful life. Brand New Water Heater just installed. The AC was newer in 2019, the roof was newer in 2019. Laminate flooring all through the rooms and tile flooring in the kitchen and dinning room , no carpet in the house. Two full bathroom with tub and shower. Conner lot with fenced backyard and covered porch. The house 4 sides most parts are brick, very low maintenance. It is a Must See and you will find it is a place called home. We are listing the house in a low end of price, we sell it “ As Is” and no negotiation at the price. Thank you .

Key facts

• Recently remodelled
• Safe neighborhood
• Good location

Tags

• GOOD LOCATION
• SAFE NEIGHBORHOOD
• RECENTLY REMODELLED
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• BRAND NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,550
• List price: $159,990
• Delta: -31.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2429 16th Ave N	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (+4%)	2mo	$215,000	$142	67
2419 29th Ave N	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-4%)	3mo	$239,900	$172	67
2118 22nd Ave N	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+5%)	4mo	$215,000	$141	66
2918 15th Ave N	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,538 (+6%)	1mo	$198,500	$129	62
2806 33rd Ave N	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-2%)	4mo	$240,000	$168	62
2410 21st Ave N	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-12%)	2mo	$160,000	$124	60
2604 27th Ave N	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-14%)	2mo	$210,000	$167	59
2814 12th Ave N	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,346 (-8%)	1mo	$172,000	$128	58
2013 17th Ave N	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-7%)	1mo	$229,900	$170	57
2909 30th Ave N	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+10%)	1mo	$220,000	$137	56
2009 15th Ave N	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,412 (-3%)	3mo	$189,900	$134	54
3014 14th Ave N	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,612 (+11%)	1mo	$110,000	$68	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-16,002
• Equity at exit: $23,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,955
• Equity at exit: $13,833

Cash invested: $44,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77590

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$370 /mo · $4,444/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $159,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,998
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2418 14th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,775	$1.19	3d	1	0.50mi
2608 21st St N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	974	$1,400	$1.44	44d	1	0.66mi
2622 34th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,725	$1.17	44d	1	0.68mi
2602 21st St N Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	1d	44	0.71mi
1919 13th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	2d	6	0.86mi
3510 Oleander Ave Unit 1545914P Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$3,902	$2.16	17d	1	0.99mi
2714 5th Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	1.06mi
3106 Danforth Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	24d	1	1.08mi
2526 3rd 1/2 Ave N Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,550	$1.25	24d	1	1.15mi
3404 9th Ave N Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,525	$2.11	2d	34	1.21mi
1115 Highway 146 N Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,350	$1.78	1d	9	1.39mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,990 Active 333 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,990 Active 332 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,990 Active 331 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,990 Active 330 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,990 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,990 Active 324 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,990 Active 323 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,990 Active 322 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,990 Active 319 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,990 Active 318 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,990 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,990 Active 316 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,990 Active 315 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $159,990 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Sweet home in a very good Location. It is a safe and quiet neighborhood. The house was recently remodelled and totally repainted both interior and exterior. It is on a conner lot with a large fenced backyard and a beautiful covered back porch for you to enjoy your beautiful life. Brand New Water Heater just installed. The AC was newer in 2019, the roof was newer in 2019. Laminate flooring all through the rooms and tile flooring in the kitchen and dinning room , no carpet in the house. Two full bathroom with tub and shower. Conner lot with fenced backyard and covered porch. The house 4 sides most parts are brick, very low maintenance. It is a Must See and you will find it is a place called home. We are listing the house in a low end of price, we sell it “ As Is” and no negotiation at the price. Thank you .

15. 2025-11-21
    price $172,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Sweet home in a very good Location. It is a safe and quiet neighborhood. The house was recently remodelled and totally repainted both interior and exterior. It is on a conner lot with a large fenced backyard and a beautiful covered back porch for you to enjoy your beautiful life. Brand New Water Heater just installed. The AC was newer in 2019, the roof was newer in 2019. Laminate flooring all through the rooms and tile flooring in the kitchen and dinning room , no carpet in the house. Two full bathroom with tub and shower. Conner lot with fenced backyard and covered porch. The house 4 sides most parts are brick, very low maintenance. It is a Must See and you will find it is a place called home. We are listing the house in a low end of price, we sell it “ As Is” and no negotiation at the price. Thank you .

16. 2025-11-07
    price $176,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Sweet home in a very good Location. It is a safe and quiet neighborhood. The house was recently remodelled and totally repainted both interior and exterior. It is on a conner lot with a large fenced backyard and a beautiful covered back porch for you to enjoy your beautiful life. Brand New Water Heater just installed. The AC was newer in 2019, the roof was newer in 2019. Laminate flooring all through the rooms and tile flooring in the kitchen and dinning room , no carpet in the house. Two full bathroom with tub and shower. Conner lot with fenced backyard and covered porch. The house 4 sides most parts are brick, very low maintenance. It is a Must See and you will find it is a place called home. We are listing the house in a low end of price, we sell it “ As Is” and no negotiation at the price. Thank you .

17. 2025-10-18
    price $186,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Sweet home in a very good Location. It is a safe and quiet neighborhood. The house was recently remodelled and totally repainted both interior and exterior. It is on a conner lot with a large fenced backyard and a beautiful covered back porch for you to enjoy your beautiful life. Brand New Water Heater just installed. The AC was newer in 2019, the roof was newer in 2019. Laminate flooring all through the rooms and tile flooring in the kitchen and dinning room , no carpet in the house. Two full bathroom with tub and shower. Conner lot with fenced backyard and covered porch. The house 4 sides most parts are brick, very low maintenance. It is a Must See and you will find it is a place called home. We are listing the house in a low end of price, we sell it “ As Is” and no negotiation at the price. Thank you .

18. 2025-07-20
    listed $196,000 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Sweet home in a very good Location. It is a safe and quiet neighborhood. The house was recently remodelled and totally repainted both interior and exterior. It is on a conner lot with a large fenced backyard and a beautiful covered back porch for you to enjoy your beautiful life. Brand New Water Heater just installed. The AC was newer in 2019, the roof was newer in 2019. Laminate flooring all through the rooms and tile flooring in the kitchen and dinning room , no carpet in the house. Two full bathroom with tub and shower. Conner lot with fenced backyard and covered porch. The house 4 sides most parts are brick, very low maintenance. It is a Must See and you will find it is a place called home. We are listing the house in a low end of price, we sell it “ As Is” and no negotiation at the price. Thank you .

19. 2025-05-18
    historical
20. 2024-10-30
    price $174,900
21. 2024-10-18
    price $179,990
22. 2024-10-09
    price $189,990
23. 2024-10-05
    price $195,900
24. 2024-10-05
    price $189,990
25. 2024-10-05
    price $199,900
26. 2024-09-20
    price $205,900
27. 2024-09-07
    price $209,900
28. 2024-07-27
    listed $219,900 Active
29. 2015-04-30
    soldstatus
30. 2015-04-17
    historical
31. 2015-04-06
    listed $65,700
32. 2005-07-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,444 · $370/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,444 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,444
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable loss: −$1,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,642
• Household income: $65,801
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1821.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 20% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.35%
• Current HPI: 244.5809
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+143.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $159,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $176,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $186,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-20 Listed $196,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $179,990 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $195,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2024-10-05 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $205,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2015-04-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-04-06 Listed $65,700 HARMLS
• 2005-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,444 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.