34904 Pine Rd S · Stapleton, AL 36578

$279,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1999 3.05 ac lot Est $251k · 11% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0

Listing remarks

Space, comfort, and a layout that just makes sense! This 4-bedroom, 3-bath mobile home offers 2,280 square feet with a layout designed for functional everyday living. Inside you’ll find two living areas, including a family room with a fireplace, a centrally located kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, and a split-bedroom floor plan that gives the primary suite added privacy with its own bath and walk-in closet. The home sits on a 3.051-acre lot in Stapleton, offering the space and flexibility that’s getting harder to find. Whether you’re looking to garden, add a workshop, keep animals, or simply enjoy the peaceful setting, this property gives you room to make it your own.

Key facts

• Two living areas
• 3.05 acre lot
• Built 1999

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• FAMILY ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE WITH BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#227 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (509 students, 18% FRL); Bay Minette Middle School (math 11% / reading 40%, grade F, #158 of 257 statewide, top 63%, 435 students, 78% FRL); Baldwin County High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #140 of 305 statewide, top 46%, 1,039 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 38% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,000 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34904 Pine Rd S	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,280 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$110	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $160,008
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $464,970
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36578

• Home prices YoY: 27.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $222	+0% $126	+5% $29	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $23	+0% $126	+5% $229	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $197	base $126	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35405 Pine Rd S Stapleton, AL	3.0	2.5	1953	$2,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $279,000
3. 2026-03-07
   listed $300,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,496
• − Management: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$3,117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $2,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Stapleton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #17116

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stapleton, AL
• City population: 1,067
• Population (ZIP): 1,067

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 21% Lithuanian 9% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 96.51%
• Current HPI: 450.9434
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $279,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-07 Listed $300,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $354 · +34.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.