6419 Julia Dr · Milton, FL 32570

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1961 10,454 sqft lot Est $212k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman special - 3 bedroom in need of attention. Large fenced yard.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Contemporary style; Single-story home (1 story)
• Construction: Built in 1961; Brick construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Lot measures approximately 0.24 acres (70 x 149); Subdivision: SKYLINE HEIGHTS

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Living room on the first floor; Kitchen on the first floor; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. H. Rhodes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 812 students, 79% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 36% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100; list at $190k implies a 189800% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.81%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6415 Julia Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,252 (0%)	4mo	$190,000	$152	90
6052 Savannah Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+5%)	2mo	$230,000	$174	77
6504 Julia Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,324 (+6%)	5mo	$183,900	$139	74
6562 Julia Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,324 (+6%)	7mo	$183,000	$138	66
6060 Savannah Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,367 (+9%)	12mo	$215,000	$157	64
6426 Walnut St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,185 (-5%)	1mo	$200,000	$169	62
5996 Savannah Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-9%)	8mo	$199,900	$175	59
6003 Savannah Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,153 (-8%)	11mo	$249,000	$216	58
6456 Gaynell Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	5mo	$178,000	$155	57
6608 Magnolia St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,307 (+4%)	1mo	$215,000	$164	52
6094 Syrcle Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-10%)	10mo	$233,000	$208	51
6444 Walnut St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,075 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$177	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,988
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,359
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,193/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $254	-5% $200	+0% $146	+5% $93	+10% $39
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $77	+0% $146	+5% $216	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $195	base $146	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5733 Orange St Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1640	$1,500	$0.91	24d	1	0.64mi
6707 Cedar Ridge Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,900	$1.14	15d	1	0.68mi
6460 Stewart St Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,188	$1.36	24d	1	0.76mi
6716 Barnwood Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,850	$1.06	24d	1	0.78mi
6747 Weathered Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$1,800	$1.16	24d	1	0.83mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	1.17mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2023-12-03
    historical $1,195
18. 2023-11-23
    listed $1,195
19. 2019-04-30
    soldstatus $100
20. 2018-08-02
    soldstatus $820,000
21. 2017-08-07
    soldstatus $29,250 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Handyman special - 3 bedroom in need of attention. Large fenced yard.

22. 2017-06-22
    listed $39,900 70-char remark

    Show marketing remark (70 chars)

    Handyman special - 3 bedroom in need of attention. Large fenced yard.

23. 2015-04-01
    historical
24. 2014-12-06
    listed $32,900
25. 2006-04-11
    soldstatus $55,100
26. 1980-07-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,193 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,193
• − Insurance: −$1,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,400
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $2,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Milton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #2480

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 69,025
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+849.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $189,900 ECAR
• 2023-12-03 Rental Removed $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-23 Listed for Rent $1,195 APPFOLIO
• 2019-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $100 Public Records
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $820,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-07 Sold (MLS) $29,250 PARMLS
• 2017-06-22 Listed $39,900 PARMLS
• 2015-04-01 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2014-12-06 Listed $32,900 PARMLS
• 2006-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,100 Public Records
• 1980-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,193 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.