11236 Loch Lomond Rd · Middletown, CA 95461

$319,970

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2352 Days on market

Built 2007 1.17 ac lot $181/sqft · 21% below area Est $403k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft.

Key facts

• 1.17 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mountainous community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway; Garage door opener; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: 220V outlet in garage; Septic tank; Public/District water
• Home design: Single-story home; One level; No common walls
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Down slope from street; Property larger than 40,000 sq ft; No pool; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Breakfast counter/bar; Dishwasher; Propane oven; Propane range
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Main-floor master bedroom
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace; Wood stove
• Interior features: Attic fan; Ceiling fans; Living room deck attached; Open floor plan; Soaking tub; Wood-burning free-standing fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Middletown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#320 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lower Lake Elementary (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,376 of 1,571 statewide, top 89%, 752 students, 78% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 2352 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,090 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 2352 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $403,236
• List price: $319,970
• Delta: -20.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13545 Casale Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (-6%)	1mo	$270,000	$163	80
10685 Sycamore Rd	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,860 (+5%)	15mo	$195,000	$105	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-61,632
• Equity at exit: $47,709

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-66,259
• Equity at exit: $27,665

Cash invested: $89,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95461

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,101/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $292,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-63	+0% $-154	+5% $-244	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-254	+0% $-154	+5% $-54	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-72	base $-154	+0.5pp $-237	+1.0pp $-321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,992
• Closing costs: $9,599
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,970 Active 2352 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $319,970 Active 2350 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,970 Active 2349 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,970 Active 2348 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,970 Active 2347 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,970 Active 2346 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,970 Active 2344 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,970 Active 2343 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,970 Active 2341 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $319,970 Active 2340 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,970 Active 2339 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,970 Active 2338 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $319,970 Active 2335 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,970 Active 2333 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,970 Active 2332 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,970 Active 2331 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $319,970 Active 2330 DOM
18. 2022-10-26
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft.

19. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed Sale 1116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft to living or storage space. A great location, peaceful and quiet, just 20 minutes to HWY 29. and 15 minutes to Lower Lake.

20. 2022-10-25
    soldstatus $330,000

    Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft to living or storage space. A great location, peaceful and quiet, just 20 minutes to HWY 29. and 15 minutes to Lower Lake.

21. 2022-09-09
    historical Contingent (Show) 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft.

22. 2022-09-08
    historical Active Under Contract 1116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft to living or storage space. A great location, peaceful and quiet, just 20 minutes to HWY 29. and 15 minutes to Lower Lake.

23. 2022-09-01
    listed $339,000 Active 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft to living or storage space. A great location, peaceful and quiet, just 20 minutes to HWY 29. and 15 minutes to Lower Lake.

24. 2022-09-01
    listed $339,000 Active 1116-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1116 chars)

    Your mountain retreat awaits! This beautiful turn key home was built in 2007, and is in a great private and tree studded location. Situated on an acre parcel, with room to make this property your own. Walk up to the huge front deck, with shade, room for patio furniture and entertaining, then enter into the incredibly open layout. Vaulted ceilings and skylights give this home a warm and inviting feel, with nice designated space for the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen has tons of storage and counter space, and an island with seating. Cozy living room with french doors to the back yard and a wood burning fireplace. Down the hall is the guest bathroom, 2 spacious guest bedrooms, and the master suite which also offers a sliding glass door to the back yard, a big walk in closet, and attached private bath with separate tub/shower. The attached garage offers storage and laundry area, and leads to the unfinished basement that could be converted to add an additional 670sqft to living or storage space. A great location, peaceful and quiet, just 20 minutes to HWY 29. and 15 minutes to Lower Lake.

25. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus $293,000 Sold
26. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus $293,000 Closed Sale
27. 2020-09-21
    soldstatus $293,000
28. 2020-09-15
    price $293,000
29. 2020-07-06
    historical Contingent
30. 2020-07-06
    historical Active Under Contract
31. 2020-04-26
    listed $289,000 Active
32. 2020-04-26
    listed $289,000 Active
33. 2020-01-12
    listed $319,970 Active
34. 2019-12-30
    historical Off-Market
35. 2019-12-30
    historical
36. 2019-10-03
    price $319,970
37. 2019-10-03
    price $319,970
38. 2019-09-17
    price $339,990
39. 2019-08-31
    listed $3,399,900 Active
40. 2019-08-31
    listed $339,990 Active
41. 2019-08-31
    historical
42. 2019-08-31
    listed $339,990 Active
43. 2019-08-31
    historical
44. 2019-08-31
    listed $339,990
45. 2016-02-21
    historical
46. 2016-02-10
    listed $295,000 Active
47. 2012-03-26
    soldstatus $140,000
48. 2012-03-26
    soldstatus $140,000
49. 2011-05-27
    listed $155,000
50. 2011-05-14
    listed $149,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,101 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,101 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,101
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,430
• − Management: −$2,430
• − Depreciation: −$9,308
• Taxable loss: −$7,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,781
• After-tax cash flow: $-63/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #10792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,720

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.72%
• Current HPI: 161.0914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1000.0% since first listed

37 events — show timeline

• 2022-10-26 Sold (MLS) $330,000 BAREIS
• 2022-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-25 Sold (MLS) $330,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-09 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2022-09-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $339,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-01 Listed $339,000 BAREIS
• 2020-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $293,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-21 Sold (MLS) $293,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-21 Sold (MLS) $293,000 BAREIS
• 2020-09-15 Price Changed $293,000 BAREIS
• 2020-07-06 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2020-07-06 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2020-04-26 Listed $289,000 CRMLS
• 2020-04-26 Listed $289,000 BAREIS
• 2020-01-12 Listed $319,970 CRMLS
• 2019-12-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-12-30 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2019-10-03 Price Changed $319,970 BAREIS
• 2019-10-03 Price Changed $319,970 CRMLS
• 2019-09-17 Price Changed $339,990 BAREIS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $339,990 SDMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $339,990 CRMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $339,990 CRMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $3,399,900 BAREIS
• 2016-02-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-02-10 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2012-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-26 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CRMLS
• 2011-05-27 Listed $155,000 BAREIS
• 2011-05-14 Listed $149,000 CRMLS
• 2005-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-17 Sold (MLS) $66,000 CRMLS
• 2004-10-10 Listed $66,000 CRMLS
• 2003-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,101 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.