413-415 9TH St #204 · Union City, NJ 07087

$565,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,093 sqft · Condo public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2006 $517/sqft · 16% below area Est $674k · 16% under $528/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL BRAND NEW! BEAUTIFUL, fully remodeled 2bdrms/ 2 Full baths condo with TWO GARAGE PARKING spots in an elevator building. This unit was renovated with the intention of being the seller’s own home — every finish reflects quality and comfort. Brand NEW kitchen cabinets topped with sleek quartz countertops and modern appliances. The unit boasts of beautiful new Luxury 9-in vinyl flooring (the most durable rigid core luxury vinyl in the market). The waterproof surface resists scuffs, scratches, fading and stains! Master bathroom shower base adorned with marble tiles, completed with radiant heated floors for a touch of indulgence. Both bedrooms feature expansive, fully customized built-in closets designed with premium materials, offering tailored organization and generous storage. High efficiency W/ D in unit. New windows, brand-new furnace and central AC unit systems. Enjoy your private balcony with a brand-new sliding glass door. An Open-concept living space that is perfect for both entertaining and relaxation. The building offers ButterflyMX intercom system (never miss a package again). This home is in the heart of Union City, ideal for the everyday commuter with both local & NYC transportation via NJ Transit and close to the 9th St congress light rail station and easy access to Hoboken.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fully remodeled
• Modern appliances

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• WATERPROOF SURFACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $565k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (52.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (48.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (52.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 226 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,932/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 6042% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $56k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$97k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $299k; list at $565k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,147 (52.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.79%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $674,405
• List price: $565,000
• Delta: -16.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $194,334
• Equity at exit: $508,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $645,601
• Equity at exit: $1,097,671

Cash invested: $158,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07087

• Home prices YoY: 9.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,963
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,315/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$528
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-1,686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,067

Max offer price $267,147

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,250
• Closing costs: $16,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 7th St Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	13d	1	0.05mi
320 6th St #1 Union City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	20d	1	0.10mi
605 Bergenline Ave #2 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	848	$2,700	$3.18	7d	1	0.12mi
510 New York Ave Unit 2 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	800	$1,950	$2.44	24d	1	0.14mi
505 Palisade Ave #2 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	900	$2,500	$2.78	43d	1	0.16mi
1415 Manhattan Ave Unit 202 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	808	$2,715	$3.36	24d	1	0.20mi
401 Bergenline Ave #1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$2,000	$2.86	13d	1	0.21mi
612 12th St Unit 4 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,600	$2.42	43d	1	0.23mi
612 12th St Unit 3 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1234	$2,900	$2.35	17d	1	0.23mi
500 Central Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	944	$3,300	$3.50	43d	2	0.26mi
500 Central Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	932	$3,300	$3.54	2d	5	0.26mi
500 Central Ave Union City, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	932	$3,300	$3.54	17d	4	0.26mi
710 6th St Unit 1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$2,450	$2.78	24d	1	0.26mi
710 6th St Unit 1 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$2,450	$2.78	43d	1	0.26mi
712 6th St Unit 1R Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	924	$2,850	$3.08	43d	1	0.27mi
1200 Central Ave #10 Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	920	$2,600	$2.83	43d	1	0.27mi
710 11th St Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	850	$2,550	$3.00	20d	1	0.29mi
1415 Manhattan Ave Unit 408 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	922	$2,811	$3.05	43d	1	0.32mi
1415 Manhattan Ave Unit 308 Union City, NJ	1.0	1.0	922	$2,800	$3.04	3d	1	0.32mi
1306 Central Ave Unit 2nd Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,595	$2.16	43d	1	0.32mi
801 Summit Ave Unit 2A Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,550	$2.12	24d	1	0.32mi
1415 Manhattan Ave Unit 501 Union City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1118	$3,890	$3.48	3d	1	0.34mi
28 Leonard St Unit 2 Jersey City, NJ	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,800	$3.17	2d	1	0.35mi
806 John F. Kennedy Blvd Apt 2 Union City, NJ	3.0	1.0	1020	$2,500	$2.45	43d	1	0.36mi
1201 Adams St Unit 408 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1033	$5,600	$5.42	15d	1	0.40mi
1331 Grand St Apt 307 Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1116	$4,450	$3.99	24d	1	0.41mi
50 Grace St Unit 2R Jersey City, NJ	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	24d	1	0.41mi
50 Grace St Jersey City, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,700	$2.70	19d	1	0.41mi
50 Grace St Unit 3 Jersey City, NJ	2.0	2.0	800	$2,700	$3.38	7d	1	0.41mi
1618 Bergenline Ave Unit 3F Union City, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	7d	1	0.42mi
1331 Grand St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$4,450	$4.77	7d	2	0.43mi
1405 Clinton St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	979	$5,400	$5.51	4d	6	0.44mi
1100 Jefferson St Hoboken, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$5,554	$5.55	1d	7	0.44mi
1300 Clinton St Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	927	$4,700	$5.07	4d	6	0.45mi
1130 Grand St Hoboken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1017	$4,738	$4.66	1d	11	0.45mi
1330 Willow Ave Hoboken, NJ	1.0	1.0	800	$4,483	$5.60	3d	2	0.47mi
1404 Willow Ave Hoboken, NJ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1142	$12,467	$10.91	1d	9	0.47mi
22 W 19th St #2 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,550	$2.96	7d	1	0.47mi
22 W 19th St #2 Weehawken, NJ	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,550	$2.96	24d	1	0.47mi
1017 Jefferson St Hoboken, NJ	2.0	1.0	1214	$3,750	$3.09	24d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $528 · $6,336/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $565,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-03-26
   price $565,000 1326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1326 chars)

   ALL BRAND NEW! BEAUTIFUL, fully remodeled 2bdrms/ 2 Full baths condo with TWO GARAGE PARKING spots in an elevator building. This unit was renovated with the intention of being the seller’s own home — every finish reflects quality and comfort. Brand NEW kitchen cabinets topped with sleek quartz countertops and modern appliances. The unit boasts of beautiful new Luxury 9-in vinyl flooring (the most durable rigid core luxury vinyl in the market). The waterproof surface resists scuffs, scratches, fading and stains! Master bathroom shower base adorned with marble tiles, completed with radiant heated floors for a touch of indulgence. Both bedrooms feature expansive, fully customized built-in closets designed with premium materials, offering tailored organization and generous storage. High efficiency W/ D in unit. New windows, brand-new furnace and central AC unit systems. Enjoy your private balcony with a brand-new sliding glass door. An Open-concept living space that is perfect for both entertaining and relaxation. The building offers ButterflyMX intercom system (never miss a package again). This home is in the heart of Union City, ideal for the everyday commuter with both local & NYC transportation via NJ Transit and close to the 9th St congress light rail station and easy access to Hoboken.

3. 2026-02-17
   listed $575,000 Active 1326-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1326 chars)

   ALL BRAND NEW! BEAUTIFUL, fully remodeled 2bdrms/ 2 Full baths condo with TWO GARAGE PARKING spots in an elevator building. This unit was renovated with the intention of being the seller’s own home — every finish reflects quality and comfort. Brand NEW kitchen cabinets topped with sleek quartz countertops and modern appliances. The unit boasts of beautiful new Luxury 9-in vinyl flooring (the most durable rigid core luxury vinyl in the market). The waterproof surface resists scuffs, scratches, fading and stains! Master bathroom shower base adorned with marble tiles, completed with radiant heated floors for a touch of indulgence. Both bedrooms feature expansive, fully customized built-in closets designed with premium materials, offering tailored organization and generous storage. High efficiency W/ D in unit. New windows, brand-new furnace and central AC unit systems. Enjoy your private balcony with a brand-new sliding glass door. An Open-concept living space that is perfect for both entertaining and relaxation. The building offers ButterflyMX intercom system (never miss a package again). This home is in the heart of Union City, ideal for the everyday commuter with both local & NYC transportation via NJ Transit and close to the 9th St congress light rail station and easy access to Hoboken.

4. 2026-01-06
   historical
5. 2026-01-04
   price $575,000
6. 2025-11-07
   price $599,000
7. 2025-09-23
   listed $615,000 Active
8. 2007-06-29
   soldstatus $299,000
9. 2007-05-25
   historical
10. 2007-05-17
    listed $299,000
11. 2007-04-11
    historical
12. 2007-03-02
    listed $359,800
13. 2007-03-01
    historical
14. 2005-11-21
    listed $369,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,315 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,692 · $724/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,377/yr (+$448/mo · 162.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,649
• − Property taxes: −$3,315
• − Insurance: −$2,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,815
• − Management: −$2,815
• − HOA: −$6,336
• − Depreciation: −$16,436
• Taxable loss: −$31,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union City School District
• NCES district ID: 3416380
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,210
• Composite: 21.55/100
• National rank: #8312
• State rank: #399 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Union City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #2998

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, NJ
• County: Hudson County · 718,323 people
• City population: 66,463
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 66,463
• Household income: $64,310
• Rent vs Own: 80.9% rent · 19.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6042.0

Population outlook (Hudson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 771,834 people
• By 2030: 818,028 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 907,866 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 994,480 · +28.8%
• By 2075: 1,163,301 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,254,703 · +62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 28% White 10% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 9% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 55% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 74% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hudson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.1) · D 62.6% · R 34.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: 46.7pp · 2024: 28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.1 2020: D+46.2 2016: D+51.8 2012: D+55.7 2008: D+46.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.10%
• Current HPI: 597.8126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.89%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+52.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $565,000 HCMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $575,000 HCMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $575,000 HCMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $599,000 HCMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $615,000 HCMLS
• 2007-06-29 Sold (MLS) $299,000 HCMLS
• 2007-05-25 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2007-05-17 Listed $299,000 HCMLS
• 2007-04-11 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2007-03-02 Listed $359,800 HCMLS
• 2007-03-01 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2005-11-21 Listed $369,800 HCMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,315 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.