509 Ave C NW · Childress, TX 79201

$69,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1938 7,000 sqft lot $80/sqft · 27% above area Est $55k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

2-bedroom, 1-bath home includes gas heating for efficient warmth in the winter and window A/C units to keep things cool in the summer. The layout is simple and functional, with practical features throughout. Outside, you'll find a backyard perfect for outdoor activities, along with a storage shed that provides extra room for tools, equipment, or seasonal items. NO TRESPASSING. PLEASE DO NOT ACCESS PROPERTY WITHOUT BEING ACCOMPANIED BY THE LISTING AGENT OR AN AGENT WHO HAS WRITTEN PERMISSION FROM THE LISTING AGENT. As with any Exclusive Listing Agreement, owners are not to negotiate with any prospective buyers, but to refer all prospective buyers to the Listing Agent, so please do not contac

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1938
• Listed 53 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 140; Zoned 8000

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Has heating; Has cooling; Natural gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#516 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Childress ISD (town): math 54% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #204 of 826 in TX (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Childress El (math 55% / reading 48%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 451 students, 72% FRL); Childress J H (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 251 students, 55% FRL); Childress H S (math 67% / reading 42%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 303 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($481 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Childress County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,415 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.19%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,549
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: 27.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 3rd St NE	0.47mi	2/1.0	862 (-0%)	1mo	$49,999	$58	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $51,465
• Equity at exit: $62,611

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.24×
• Total profit: $140,838
• Equity at exit: $135,023

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79201

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $233	+0% $214	+5% $194	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $181	+0% $214	+5% $247	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $231	base $214	+0.5pp $196	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,500 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $69,500 Active 796-char remark
18. 2023-05-03
    soldstatus
19. 2021-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,272 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 80.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$809
• − Management: −$809
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $1,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $2,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Childress ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813860
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,072
• Composite: 41.25/100
• National rank: #3529
• State rank: #204 of 826 in TX

Livability — Childress

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #10179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Childress, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,817

Population outlook (Childress County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,082 people
• By 2030: 7,249 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 7,425 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 7,451 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 7,067 · -0.2%
• By 2100: 5,510 · -22.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Childress

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.0) · D 11.6% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.1pp toward R · 2008: -56.0pp · 2024: -76.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.0 2020: R+71.7 2016: R+74.3 2012: R+67.4 2008: R+56.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.42%
• Current HPI: 179.442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $69,500 AARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.