11254 Tallow Creek Dr · Walker, LA 70726

$210,385

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,283 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,490 sqft lot Est $187k · 12% over $28/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The DUNCAN V J in Vincent Cove community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open design. Features: walk-in closet in the primary suite, covered rear patio, ceiling fans in the living room and primary bedroom are standard, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, blinds on all windows, wood fencing for the rear yard, post tension slab, landscaping, architectural 30-year shingles, flood lights, and more! Energy Efficient Features: a kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered rear patio
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• CEILING FANS
• SMART CONNECT WI-FI THERMOSTAT
• BLINDS ON ALL WINDOWS
• WOOD FENCING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Vincent Cove subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with professional management; Annual association fee of $340 (about $28.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with concrete surface and garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; 1 story; New construction; Model: Duncan V J; Built by Dsld, LLC
• Construction: Vinyl siding, frame, and cement siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range, Oven, Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Range, Oven, Dishwasher, Disposal, Microwave; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-817/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Walker — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,967 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,318
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23532 Wellington Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,419 (+11%)	4mo	$195,000	$137	70
23938 Teakwood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	3mo	$212,000	$144	68
23522 Country Manor Ave	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (+9%)	10mo	$199,900	$143	66
23529 Country Manor Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,419 (+11%)	6mo	$205,000	$144	65
23544 Wellington Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,133 (-12%)	10mo	$185,000	$163	65
23482 Country Manor Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (+9%)	13mo	$199,500	$143	64
23581 Wellington Ave	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,438 (+12%)	11mo	$130,000	$90	60
12235 Dove Hollow Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$170	59
23446 Springhill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+14%)	15mo	$214,000	$146	56
23449 Springhill Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+15%)	12mo	$218,500	$148	56
23765 Southpoint Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+15%)	1mo	$235,000	$160	46
24578 Rolling Mdw	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+9%)	11mo	$212,000	$151	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-36,877
• Equity at exit: $31,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-31,227
• Equity at exit: $18,190

Cash invested: $58,908 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,790 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,103
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$263 /mo · $3,156/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $200,533

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $5	+0% $-68	+5% $-141	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-139	+0% $-68	+5% $3	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-15	base $-68	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,596
• Closing costs: $6,312
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11342 Woodlore Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,500	$0.99	16d	1	0.17mi
11247 Westwood Ave Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	0.34mi
24585 Fair Weather Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	0.76mi
25662 Tarver St , LA	4.0	2.0	1570	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.04mi
11402 Ashwood Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,750	$1.31	23d	1	1.08mi
11385 Ashwood Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,900	$1.22	45d	1	1.10mi
25699 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	16d	1	1.13mi
25729 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	25d	1	1.13mi
25729 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	16d	1	1.13mi
25699 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	1.13mi
25717 Raines Ave Dennis Mills, LA	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,200	$1.40	21d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: internetlandscaping

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The DUNCAN V J in Vincent Cove community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open design. Features: walk-in closet in the primary suite, covered rear patio, ceiling fans in the living room and primary bedroom are standard, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, blinds on all windows, wood fencing for the rear yard, post tension slab, landscaping, architectural 30-year shingles, flood lights, and more! Energy Efficient Features: a kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more!

2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The DUNCAN V J in Vincent Cove community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open design. Features: walk-in closet in the primary suite, covered rear patio, ceiling fans in the living room and primary bedroom are standard, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, blinds on all windows, wood fencing for the rear yard, post tension slab, landscaping, architectural 30-year shingles, flood lights, and more! Energy Efficient Features: a kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more!

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $210,385 Active

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The DUNCAN V J in Vincent Cove community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open design. Features: walk-in closet in the primary suite, covered rear patio, ceiling fans in the living room and primary bedroom are standard, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, blinds on all windows, wood fencing for the rear yard, post tension slab, landscaping, architectural 30-year shingles, flood lights, and more! Energy Efficient Features: a kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more!

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $210,385 Active 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The DUNCAN V J in Vincent Cove community offers a 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, open design. Features: walk-in closet in the primary suite, covered rear patio, ceiling fans in the living room and primary bedroom are standard, smart connect wi-fi thermostat, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, blinds on all windows, wood fencing for the rear yard, post tension slab, landscaping, architectural 30-year shingles, flood lights, and more! Energy Efficient Features: a kitchen appliance package, low E tilt-in windows, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,785
• − Property taxes: −$3,156
• − Insurance: −$1,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$6,120
• Taxable loss: −$4,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,058
• After-tax cash flow: $241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Walker, LA, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls/paint, windows, foundation/structure, HVAC/mechanicals, and landscaping/curb appeal. The home is move-in ready with minimal repairs and maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting interior walls, replacing ceiling fans with energy-efficient models, installing a smart home security system, and adding a smart lighting system.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce energy costs and improve comfort
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities
• Both Add smart lighting system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient fans reduce energy costs and improve comfort ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Walker

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3999

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 23,921
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $210,385 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $210,385 AcadianaMLS